This is not the first time we use a Convergence/ Divergence approach to Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Cycles and certainly not the last one. On the previous one, it helped us to succesffuly predict the end of 2022 bottom but what we couldn't anticipate is how smooth the new/ current Cycle 5 (orange trend-line) would be. As the title says, this is probably the 'most normal' Cycle of them all, as BTC has been trading within a Channel Up (orange) since the Bear Cycle's bottom more than 2 years ago. To get a better understanding of this claim, we compare Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles from their previous top to the next one (with the exception of the first), on this complete mapping analysis, having them all displayed on top of another: Cycle 1 (green trend-line), Cycle 2 (red), Cycle 3 (blue), Cycle 4 (black) and the current one Cycle 5 (orange). ** Diminishing Returns ** As you see, first of all, this showcases the Theory of Diminishing Returns, which suggests that as the market grows and higher adoption is achieved, BTC will show less and less returns in each Cycle. Every Cycle Top has been lower from the previous one. ** Cycle Convergence - Divergence ** Secondly, all Cycles particularly during their Bear Phase and for a short time after, tend to follow a common path. The illustration on this analysis is very clear as it starts with each Cycle's Bear Phase and you can see that when they diverge, they converge again quickly. The most recent Bear Phase was not surprisingly as long as Cycle 4 and almost Cycle 3, which was to be expected as the market has shown an amazing degree of symmetry in the past 10 years. Note that this is also the model that helped as determine very early in 2023 that Cycle 3 would be the best fit for the new Cycle in terms of price action and without a doubt, BTC has been mostly replicating that Cycle. ** What's next for the current Cycle? ** If we compare the current Cycle (5) with Cycle 3 we can see that the Convergence - Divergence Model is holding. So far when Cycle 5 converged, it immediately diverged. And this is exactly what it has been doing since the December High and the marginal January All Time High (ATH). It has started to diverge significantly from Cycle 3 so what the recent pull-back to the 1W MA50 achieved is to normalize it and is about to touch it. Now that the price hit the bottom of its +2 year Channel Up, we expect to rise, which will achieved convergence and contact with both Cycles 3 and 4, which is what they both did in their last 150 days of their respective Bull Cycles. Technically, this can take Cycle 5 to around $150k. As we've first mentioned in the crypto space, regarding the last Bear Market being the 'smoothest' in history, we can securely say now that the current Bull Cycle is also the 'most normal' ever. So what do you think? Does this Cycle regression model offer any useful conclusion as to where Bitcoin might top and if so, is this Cycle indeed the 'most normal' in the history? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE ?, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE ? and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ?????? ? ? ? ? ? ?
ABB India Ltd. (NSE: ABB) - Technical Analysis & Market Outlook Overview: ABB India Ltd. has demonstrated significant price action over the past few years, with a strong uptrend followed by a corrective phase. The current price action suggests a potential reversal from key support levels, presenting an opportunity for long-term investors and swing traders. Key Observations: Support Zone: The stock is currently testing a major support level around ₹5000 - ₹5200 , which aligns with a previous accumulation zone and historical resistance-turned-support. 200-Week Moving Average: Price action is hovering near the 200-week moving average, which has historically acted as a strong dynamic support. RSI & Momentum: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into oversold territory and is now showing early signs of a potential reversal. Volume Profile Analysis: The highest volume concentration is observed around the ₹6000-₹7000 range, indicating a major supply zone where price may retest if a reversal occurs. Price Structure: The formation suggests a higher low structure , which is a positive sign for bullish continuation. Potential Trade Setup: Entry : Around the current levels of ₹5100-₹5200 with confirmation of bullish momentum. Stop-Loss : Below ₹4800, as a break of this level may invalidate the bullish thesis. Target 1 : ₹7000 (previous consolidation zone & high-volume area) Target 2 : ₹9000 (previous swing high & psychological resistance) Conclusion: ABB India Ltd. is currently at a critical juncture, with strong confluence of technical factors supporting a potential upside move. Traders should monitor price action closely for confirmation before entering. If the support holds, the stock has a high probability of reversing towards higher levels. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
USDJPY's downward trend is about to end, start going long Trading strategy: USDJPY buy@146.5-147 TP:149-150 Currently, my account balance has grown from an initial $40,000 to $600,000 in profits. I will share accurate trading signals every day, and you have the option to copy my trading orders. If you're interested in getting these signals, you can click on the link below this article.
# Once in a decade kind of opportunity at 680 odd levels as on 17th March 2025 # Stock over reacted to the derivative accounting issue worth 2.35% of Networth # The stock is available at 0.7 time fy 26 book value which is just a year from now. # With GNPA at 2.5%, NNPA at 1%, CAR of 16% and a quarterly profit potential of 2500 crores on a b/s size of 6 lac crores, 1500 crores of expected loss is easily absorbable and a 27% reaction on 11th March for that was blown out of proportion. # I am aware that ceo got only 1 year extension when board approved 3 years and there is a sudden discrepancy of 1520 crore which has come out of blue due to derivative hedging issue but we have seen such events in past and the valuation didn't breakdown to such ridiculous levels. # For example ICICI Bank faced issues of CEO fraud, excessive lending to troubled corporates and yet it bottomed out at 1.2 times book Value. # Another example is of Axis Bank when RBI found NPA divergence of 5600 crores worth over 10% of its networth at that time in June 2017. The stock fell only 9% that day and didn't went below 1.8 times book value. CEO sikha sharma didn't got any extension even though board approved 3 years of extension to her as CEO. # The reason that I can imagine why IndusInd bank has reacted so violently is due to enormous amount of technical / momentum traders and strategies at play in market these days. Algo based trading coupled with leverage has created a scenario where even a slightest news is creating a monster reaction on downside when everyone is trying to exit at the same time. That is creating the price distortion I have not witnessed before. # Once things settle the market will revalue the bank appropriately and in a years time it should be above 1650 levels valuing it at 1.5 time fy 27 book value.
NZDJPY On the chart shows a three candle Reversal it has broken the 0.618 and could move towards 87.770 on the fib. observation: RBNZ Rate came in as expected also the Yen looking to push up however four days ago JP MORGAN was looking to long on the Yen. However News over this week could change. However Big Money can push the market either way. Disclaimer: all trades entered are at individual's risk never risk more than your prepared to lose stop/loss to minimize loss and take profit when the time is right. all trades are at the individual trader own RTW.
Overview: Gold is currently showing signs of consolidation after a strong bullish push. The market is at a decision point, and I’m expecting a potential retracement before the next move. My bias is bullish in the long term but waiting for confirmation before entering. ⸻ ? Key Levels to Watch: ? Daily Support (2953) - Strong S/R level, expecting a retest before continuation. ? 4H Support (2925) - If price rejects this zone, it confirms bullish strength. A break below may lead to a deeper correction. ? 1H Consolidation Zone - Price is ranging, with sellers holding control at the top of the range. A breakout is needed for clearer direction. ⸻ ? Market Observations: ✅ Daily Chart: Price has broken key resistance and is now looking for a retest. The previous impulse leg suggests a retracement to build liquidity before continuing higher. ✅ 4H Chart: Momentum is slowing down, with the MACD flattening and the EMAs tightening. A break and close below 2925 would indicate a possible shift in trend. ✅ 1H Chart: Price is consolidating with wicks forming at the top, showing signs of bearish pressure. EMAs are flattening, and the 9 EMA is close to crossing downward, which could signal a sell-off before the next bullish move. ⸻ ? Bearish Scenario: • If 2953 fails to hold, I’ll look for a deeper retracement to 2925. • A break and close below 2925 would indicate further downside potential. ? Bullish Scenario: • If 2953 holds, I’ll wait for bullish confirmation and enter long on the second bullish candle. • If price breaks below but quickly reclaims 2953, this would be a liquidity grab, and I’ll look for a strong bullish entry. ⸻ ⚠️ London Session Considerations: • London open can create fake moves, so I’m waiting to see how price reacts before committing. • If price makes an early push against the trend (i.e., breaks higher before dropping), this could be a liquidity grab for a short-term sell before a buy setup forms. ⸻ ? Trading Plan: • Watching 2953 for rejection or break. • If confirmed, I’ll take a buy targeting new highs. • If broken, waiting for 2925 to confirm further downside or re-evaluate for shorts.
EURUSD has reached a key resistance level, and can start shorting Trading Strategy EURUSD sell@1.0900-1.0950 tp:1.0800-1.0700 Currently, my account balance has grown from an initial $40,000 to $600,000 in profits. I will share accurate trading signals every day, and you have the option to copy my trading orders. If you're interested in getting these signals, you can click on the link below this article.
A nice simple post here. As you can see, in Late January, the 5 main SMA ( Simple Moving Averages) finaly got into sequential order Under PA This is a sign that PA is bullish. As you can see, in September 202, this happened and PA began its rise after a sharp drop just before hand. It is a bit different this time in that we have dropped AFTER that SMA order was made. But it is still a Good sign HOWEVER - what is important to note, is how PA has fallen below that 21 and we are currently hitting off the 50, searching for Support again. I remain BULLISH and I am sure that within a few weeks, we shall move back over that 21. From were the SMA went into order in 2020, it took about 6 months to reach the first ATH in 2021 PA is rising Much slower than in that cycle but If that repeats, we can see a New Real ATH around July / August I would say that is too early to be honest and so I expect larter. As I said, PA is rising slower this time around. But, anyway, Good News that the SMA have remained in order so far... Something to look forward to
Bitcoin is trading below the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. The continuation of Bitcoin’s downward trend and its placement in the demand zone will provide us with the opportunity to buy it again. As long as Bitcoin is above the drawn trend line, we can think about buying transactions. The continued rise of Bitcoin will also lead to testing of selling transactions from the supply zone. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and observing capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range. In recent days, Bitcoin’s price has experienced a significant decline, reaching its lowest level in several weeks. This price drop coincides with growing concerns about a potential economic recession in the U.S. and the impact of Donald Trump’s recent statements on financial markets. As a result, many investors have shifted towards safer assets. Analysts believe that Trump’s remarks have intensified market volatility, leading to increased selling pressure across financial markets. Consequently, riskier assets like Bitcoin have also seen a decline in price. Given the uncertainty in the market and doubts surrounding the future of the U.S. economy, experts predict that Bitcoin’s price fluctuations will persist. While some investors see this drop as a buying opportunity, the lack of clarity on upcoming economic policies has heightened overall risk. On March 14, Bitcoin broke its long-standing 12-year ascending support trend against gold (XAU). A well-known analyst, NorthStar, has warned that if Bitcoin remains below this level for a week or more, it could signal the end of its 12-year bullish trend. This breakdown occurred as spot gold prices surged by 12.80% since the beginning of the year, reaching a new record high above $3,000 per ounce. In contrast, Bitcoin—often referred to as “digital gold”—has fallen 11% so far in 2025. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, who previously predicted that Bitcoin would drop below $80K, now believes its decline will likely bottom out around $70K. Meanwhile, reports indicate that Russia is increasingly using cryptocurrencies in its oil trade, which is valued at $192 billion. Digital assets are facilitating the conversion of yuan and rupees into rubles, streamlining transactions. According to sources, Russian oil companies have been utilizing Tether, Bitcoin, and Ethereum in their trades.While digital assets currently represent a small portion of the oil trade, their adoption is growing rapidly.
It can be found that 3004 is just the top position of the 4-hour chart. After failing to break through the range last Friday, a retracement signal has also appeared. The current lower range support of the 4-hour chart is 2955-50. And 2955-50 happens to be the previous high point. Therefore, this position may be the dividing point between long and short positions of gold this week. Secondly, from the hourly chart: It can be seen that the current hourly chart of gold shows signs of a head and shoulders top. Once gold falls below 2980 today, it is very likely to develop towards the lower 2955-2940. 2955-50 happens to be the 618 position of this trend. The lower 50% is around 2940, which may also be the extreme retracement position of gold. Therefore, I do not recommend that you continue to chase more, but consider entering the market to short near 2990. If it falls below 2980, you can directly look at the position of 2955-2940. You can read bottom signals, interpret daily market trends, share real-time strategies, and no longer blindly follow the trend.