NASDAQ:FORM Upper level for Long Lower level for Short
Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis – March 25, 2025 Timeframe Observed: Likely 30-min or 1H Current Price: Around $3022.70 Visual Pattern: Multiple bearish flag formations after impulsive down legs Key Observations: 1. Bearish Flag Continuation Pattern Chart accurately highlights repeating bearish flags (tight upward channels after sharp down legs). These are continuation patterns that typically resolve to the downside. Price is currently forming another flag, which suggests a high-probability breakdown if support fails. 2. Consistent Impulse-Flag Structure The series of impulsive falls followed by consolidation channels is classic distribution in a downtrend. Each flag breaks with momentum, leading to a sharp drop, and this pattern appears to be repeating. 3. Immediate Levels: Level Description $3030–3025 Current flag resistance $3010–3005 Flag support – breakdown point $2985–2970 Next potential target after breakdown $2945–2920 Extended target if breakdown sustains 4. Bearish Momentum Bias- Structure is aligned with lower highs and lower lows. Sellers are consistently defending higher levels. Unless $3035 is broken convincingly, momentum remains bearish. A close above $3035 would invalidate the flag and indicate short-term strength or reversal. ✅ Conclusion: Gold is exhibiting a classic bearish flag continuation pattern in a short-term downtrend. The repeated structure signals a high probability of further downside, especially if price breaks below the current flag support ($3005–3010). Traders should stay biased to the short side unless $3035 is decisively taken out. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is meant for educational and informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before trading. Trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors.
Technical analysis are on the buying side . USD is on the weaker side .
DOT LONG Entry Price 1: $4.60 Entry Price 2: $4.40 Stop Loss: $4.10 Take Profit 1: $4.80 Take Profit 2: $5.00 Take Profit 3: $5.20 Take Profit 4: $5.50 Status: ACTIVE LTC NEUTRAL WAITING FFOR BREAK OUT
If anyone ever thought of erecting a monument to the person who did the most for American investors — the choice would fall on John Bogle. These words are not from a promotional brochure but a quote from Warren Buffett himself. Book summary But most people don’t even know who Bogle is. And certainly don’t realize that he didn’t just “create index funds.” He built an invulnerable power machine disguised as client care. ? From a thesis to $10 trillion under management Bogle’s story begins with an ordinary guy born during the Great Depression. Through poverty, scholarship-based education, and working from age 10 — he makes his way into Princeton, where he writes a thesis on a topic that would change the industry: "mutual funds." Over the years, his philosophy turned into what we now know as "passive investing." From day one, the Vanguard he created operated on the principle: "maximum benefit to the investor, minimum — to the managers." No fees, no speculation, no marketing. And it worked. But here’s the paradox: ▶ Vanguard gave up profit for the mission. ▶ The world responded — investors were tired of the noise. ▶ As a result — "Vanguard grew into a monster capable of managing the economies of entire nations." ? A revolutionary idea: a fund owned by investors Bogle built a structure where "the fund owners are the investors themselves." Sounds beautiful: no shareholders, no profit pressure — only long-term client interests. But then who de facto manages these trillions? ⚠️ Vanguard is not a public company. ⚠️ Its shares are not traded. ⚠️ The real ownership mechanism — a black box. It’s the perfect system for... "invisible control." And this isn’t a conspiracy theory, but logic: If you can’t find the ultimate beneficiary — it means they’re either too big, or hiding for a reason. ?️ The “Big Three” and the invisible hand effect Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street — three funds that hold between 3% to 8% of shares in most of the world’s largest corporations. It seems small, but only 15–20% of shares are in free float. ❗ This gives the Big Three “real power”: from voting at meetings to influencing media narratives and climate policy. ? They own stakes in CNN, Fox, and Disney. ? Invest in oil companies that violate human rights. ? And at the same time — push the “green transition” agenda. Conflict of interest? No. It’s “total control over both sides of the conflict.” ? Why Vanguard is impossible to destroy If you think Vanguard is just an investment fund, here are a few facts: ? No company shares → can’t buy a controlling stake. ? Over 400 legal entities → can’t file a single lawsuit. ? Every investor essentially becomes a “co-owner” → responsibility is blurred. ? All stakes split below 10% → bypass antitrust laws. You can’t sue a ghost. You can’t attack a network if you don’t know where its center is. ? What’s next? Today, Vanguard manages over $10 trillion, which is more than the GDP of Germany, India, and Brazil combined. Though the fund’s founder passed away as “the conscience of Wall Street,” his creation became an "architecture of global control" that even the U.S. Federal Reserve couldn’t handle. ? “We are the invisible hand of Adam Smith,” John Bogle once said. A more detailed book review will follow below. I understand how important this is in our time and I appreciate it. ? General Concept of the Book: The book is at once the autobiography of John Bogle, the story of the founding and development of Vanguard, and a manifesto of index investing philosophy. A runaway waiter, Princeton graduate, and "Wall Street rebel," Bogle creates Vanguard — a company that changed the investment world by making it more fair and accessible. ? Structure of the Book: The book is divided into four parts: Part I — The History of Vanguard. Part II — The Evolution of Key Funds. Part III — The Future of Investment Management. Part IV — Personal Reflections, Philosophy, and Values of the Author. ? Key Ideas of the Book (Introductory Chapters, Preface): - Index investing is the most important financial innovation of the 20th century. - Passive management beats active managers in returns and costs. - Vanguard’s mission is not to make money off investors, but to serve them. - Criticism of Wall Street: high fees, conflicts of interest, short-term thinking. - Financial revolution — a mass shift of investors from active to index funds. ? Bogle's Values: - Long-term thinking. Don’t give in to market “noise.” - Honesty and transparency in investing. - Minimal costs = maximum return for the investor. - Fiduciary duty: protecting the client’s interest comes first. ? Part I: The History of Vanguard ? Chapter 1: 1974 — The Prophecy Context: John Bogle is in a difficult position — he’s fired as head of Wellington Management Company. During a trip to Los Angeles, he meets John Lovelace of American Funds, who warns: if you create a truly mutual investment company, you’ll destroy the industry. Main Idea: ⚡ Bogle decides to go against the profit-driven industry and creates Vanguard — a company owned by investors, not managers. Key Moments: - Vanguard is founded in 1974 — in the middle of a crisis. - The company has no external shareholders — all “profits” are returned to investors through lower fees. - In 1975, the first index fund for individual investors is launched — a revolutionary idea, initially ridiculed as “Bogle’s madness.” Important Quotes: "Gross return before costs is market return. Net return after costs is lower. Therefore, to get the maximum, you must minimize costs." – Bogle’s fundamental rule ? Chapter 2: 1945–1965 — Background: Blair Academy, Princeton, Fortune, and Wellington Early Life: Bogle studies at Blair Academy on a scholarship, works as a waiter. He enters Princeton. Struggles with his economics course, but… In the library, he accidentally finds the Fortune article “Big Money in Boston” — about mutual funds. Turning Point: This article inspires Bogle to write his thesis: “The Economic Role of the Investment Company”, where he argues: - Funds should work for investors; - Don’t expect them to beat the market; - Costs must be minimized; - Fund structure must be fair and transparent. Career Start: Work at Wellington Management (Philadelphia). Starts from scratch, rising from junior analyst to president of the company. Under Walter Morgan’s leadership, he learns the principles of discipline and serving investors. ✍️ Interim Summary What’s important from these early chapters: - Vanguard was born from the ruins of Bogle’s former career — an example of how failure can be the beginning of greatness. - Already in college, Bogle saw the issue of conflicts of interest in the industry. - His philosophy is idealism in action: don’t play guessing games — just invest in the market and reduce costs. ? Chapter 3: 1965–1974 — Rise and Fall ? Appointed President of Wellington Management: In 1965, at just 35 years old, John Bogle becomes president of Wellington. He decides to modernize the business and bring in young star managers from Wall Street, especially from the firm Thorndike, Doran, Paine & Lewis. ⚠️ Risky Alliance: Bogle makes a fatal mistake — he merges with the new management company without ensuring value alignment. The new partners are focused on profit and short-term gains, not building a strong long-term foundation. This leads to internal conflict, loss of trust, and poor fund performance. ? Dismissal: In 1974, after a series of conflicts, the board removes Bogle. He loses control of the company he built for nearly 25 years. Bogle’s comment: "I was fired, but I was still chairman of the Wellington mutual funds — and that turned out to be a lifeline." ? Chapter 4: 1974–1975 — The Birth of Vanguard ? A Unique Legal Loophole: Though Bogle was fired from the management company, he remained head of the Wellington Fund trustees — giving him the opportunity to build a new independent structure. ? Creating Vanguard: In December 1974, he launches The Vanguard Group — a company owned by the investors (shareholders) themselves. Model: the fund belongs to the investors → the fund owns the management company → no outside profit, only cost recovery. ⚙️ "Vanguard" as a Symbol: The name was inspired by Admiral Horatio Nelson’s ship — HMS Vanguard. A symbol of leadership, courage, and moving against the tide. Key Idea: Vanguard would be the only truly mutual investment organization — a model where clients = owners. ? Chapter 5: 1975 — The First Index Fund ? Revolution: The Indexing Approach Bogle decides to create the first index mutual fund for retail investors. Name: First Index Investment Trust (later — Vanguard 500 Index Fund). Idea: invest in all S&P 500 stocks to reflect the market’s return instead of trying to beat it. ? A Blow to the Industry: The financial world reacts harshly: - “Bogle’s madness”; - “This is a failure”; - “Who would want to just match the market?” ? Humble Beginning: The goal was to raise $150 million, but only $11 million was collected — tiny by industry standards. But Bogle didn’t give up: "It was a small step, but with a powerful message." ? Summary of Chapters 3–5: How Vanguard Was Built ? Event ? Meaning Loss of control at Wellington ----- Collapse of the old model, beginning of a new path Creation of Vanguard------------- Innovative, investor-first structure Launch of index fund--------------Start of the indexing revolution, Bogle’s core philosophy ? Quotes for Thought: "All I did was apply common sense. I just said: Let’s leave the returns to the investors, not the managers." — John Bogle "This is a business where you get what you don’t pay for. Lower costs = better results." — Bogle’s favorite saying, debunking “more is better” ? Chapter 6: 1976–1981 — The Survival Period ⏳ Tough Start: After launching the index fund, Vanguard faces slow growth and constant skepticism. For 83 straight months (nearly 7 years!), Vanguard sees net outflows — investors are hesitant to trust this new model. ? Laying the Foundation: Bogle and his team focus on: - Transparency - Lowering costs - Investor education (they explain what it means to “stay the course”) ? The Core Dilemma: "All investors want to beat the market. But no one wants to pay the price: high fees, taxes, risks. We offered an alternative — reliability, simplicity, and low cost." ? Small Wins: Despite modest volume, Vanguard starts building a reputation as an “honest player.” It becomes evident: investors using Vanguard achieve better long-term results than those chasing trendy funds. ? Chapter 7: 1982–1991 — Growth and Recognition ? The Power of Philosophy: Bogle keeps repeating: “Stay the course” — don’t try to predict the market, don’t fall for fear and greed. This message becomes especially powerful after the 1982 and 1987 market crises. ? The First Fruits: A slow but steady increase in assets begins. Vanguard launches new index funds: - Total Stock Market Index - Bond Index - International Index ? Educational Mission: Bogle writes books, articles, gives interviews. He isn’t just running a fund — he’s changing how people think about investing. A community of followers emerges — the Bogleheads. ? Key Stats: By 1991, Vanguard's assets reach around $130 billion. Index funds begin receiving positive reviews from analysts, including Morningstar. ? Chapter 8: 1991–1999 — Industry Leadership ? Explosive Growth: In the 1990s, index funds go mainstream. Investors realize that most active funds underperform the market — and they vote with their money for Vanguard. ? Expanding the Product Line: Vanguard introduces: - Retirement funds - Bond funds - International and balanced funds - Admiral Shares — low-cost funds for loyal investors ? Open Fight with the Industry: Bogle continues to harshly criticize Wall Street: - For greed, manipulation, and lack of transparency - For prioritizing company profit over client interest "The industry hates Vanguard because it proves you can be honest and still succeed." ⚠️ Internal Challenges: In the late 1990s, Bogle’s health declines. He passes leadership to Jack Brennan but retains influence on company strategy. ? Midpoint Summary (Chapters 6–8) ? Phase ? Essence 1976–1981 Quiet survival: building the model, fighting for trust 1982–1991 Slow growth: philosophy attracts investors 1991–1999 Recognition and leadership: indexing becomes dominant ? Bogle Quotes from These Chapters: "Investing is not a business. It’s a service. Those who forget this lose everything." "Every dollar spent on fees is a dollar lost to your future." "Volatility is not the enemy. The real enemy is you, if you panic." ? Chapter 9: Leadership as a Calling ? A Leader ≠ A Manager: Bogle contrasts a true leader with just an efficient executive. A real leader: - Puts others’ interests above their own - Has a moral compass, not just KPIs - Makes hard, unpopular decisions ? His Leadership Style: "Don’t ask others to do what you wouldn’t do yourself." "Always explain why — people follow meaning, not orders." He genuinely believes Vanguard should be more than a successful business — it should be a force for good in the market. "Leadership is loyalty to an idea bigger than yourself." ? Feedback Principle: Bogle constantly interacts with clients, employees, and journalists. He never isolates himself in an “ivory tower” — he believes this openness is a leader’s true strength. ? Chapter 10: Client Service — Vanguard’s Mission ? The Mission: "Maximize investor returns — not company profits." Vanguard is built around fiduciary responsibility: every decision must pass the test — is this in the investor’s best interest or not? ? How It’s Implemented: - Fees below market average → investors keep more - No ads for “hot” funds → Vanguard sells stability, not trends - No sales commissions → no one profits off pushing funds to clients - Ethical code — “Don’t do anything you wouldn’t want on the front page of the newspaper.” "We’re not trying to be the best for Wall Street. We’re trying to be the best for you." ? Chapter 11: The Market Should Serve Society ? Critique of Modern Wall Street: Bogle argues that finance has drifted from its original purpose. Investing has turned into trading. The investor became a cash cow, not a partner. "The market now serves itself — and we’re still paying the price." ? What the System Should Look Like: - Companies should serve society - Investors should be owners, not speculators - Funds should be transparent, accountable, and honest ? Call for Reform: Bogle calls for a rethinking of finance: - Restore the human element - Make mission more important than profit - Protect long-term interests of millions of ordinary investors "If we want capitalism with a human face, we must return finance to serving society." ? Summary of Chapters 9–11: Bogle's Philosophy ? Direction------------? Essence Leadership-------------Morality, leading by example, purpose-driven Business---------------First and foremost — service to the client Financial System-------Must work for society, not just for profit of the few ✨ Inspirational Quotes: "The most important thing you can invest is not money — it’s your conscience." "Honesty in business is not a competitive edge. It’s a duty." "I’m not against capitalism. I’m against capitalism without morals." ? Chapter 12: The Future of Investing — Where the Industry Is Headed ? Bogle sees three main trends: Victory of Passive Investing: - Index funds continue to displace active management - Their share of assets under management is growing rapidly - More investors are realizing the power of simplicity Fee Pressure: - Fees are approaching zero (some funds are effectively free) - Winners: investors. Losers: traditional management companies The Role of Technology: - Rise of robo-advisors (automated investment advisors) - But Bogle warns: Technology without philosophy is just a tool, not a solution ? Threat #1 — Hyperfinancialization: "The market is turning into a casino. And the fewer the players, the more the house wins." Bogle reminds us: the goal of investing is owning businesses — not gambling. The higher the turnover, the more you lose on fees and taxes. ? Chapter 13: The Power of Indexing — Threat or Blessing? ? Strength in Scale: The biggest index providers (Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street) own large shares in nearly all companies in the indexes. This raises the issue of concentrated power — is too much influence in too few hands? ⚖️ The Indexing Paradox: Index funds don’t actively vote on corporate governance issues. So the more power they hold, the less oversight there is over company management. ? Bogle’s Proposals: - Establish a code of conduct for index providers - Require them to vote in investors’ interests - Mandate transparency in how they use their voting power "We fought for the democratization of investing. We cannot let it end in a new monarchy." ? Chapter 14: Personal Reflections — On Life, Mission, and Faith ? Personal and Eternal: Bogle shares his core life principles: - To serve, not to own - To leave a mark, not accumulate - To do what’s right, not what’s profitable He talks about his battle with heart disease — both as a personal journey and a metaphor for resisting the system. ? Gratitude: He dedicates the book to his family, colleagues, and investors. Emphasizes: every day is a chance to be useful. "I created Vanguard, but Vanguard created me. My career isn’t a triumph — it’s a thank you to fate for the chance to be heard." ? Summary of Chapters 12–14: Looking Ahead and Within ? Theme-----------------? Essence Future of Investing---------Indexing is the new standard, but needs responsible stewardship Concentration of Power----Index giants must be accountable to society Personal Legacy-----------Life is about service, honesty, and setting an example ? Final Inspirational Quotes: "Life isn’t about making more money. It’s about doing more good." "One day, someone will say: ‘Bogle was stubborn. He never compromised his conscience.’ That will be the best reward." ? Bogle’s Principle Summary (from the book): - Lower costs — pay less = keep more - Don’t chase returns — be realistic - Be a long-term investor — ignore market noise - Invest broadly, passively, regularly - Don’t try to beat the market — own the market - Focus on goals, not trends - Finance = service. Not a business for profit ? Investment Philosophy ? “This is a business where you get what you don’t pay for.” ? “Don’t try to beat the market. Just own it.” ? “In the stock market, investors are rewarded for patience and punished for frenzy.” ? “Gross return minus costs = market return. After costs — less. So: reduce costs — and you win.” ? “The problem isn’t that investors know too little. The problem is they know too much of what doesn’t matter.” ? Principles & Morality ? “Investing is not a business. It’s a service.” ? “Honesty isn’t a strategy. It’s an obligation.” ? “The goal of Vanguard isn’t to make more, but to return to the investor what’s rightfully theirs.” ? “If your investments keep you up at night, change them. Or better — change yourself.” ? On Leadership and Mission ? “A leader isn’t the one in front. It’s the one responsible for the rest.” ? “Respect isn’t bought. It’s earned when you do what’s right, even if it’s unpopular.” ? “We didn’t build Vanguard for glory. We built it to leave something better than what was.” ? On the Market and Industry ? “Today's stock market isn’t a place for investors. It’s a casino with a shiny sign.” ? “We’re not against capital. We’re against capitalism without a conscience.” ? “The people selling investments always say they can pick the best. But what if the best is just paying less?” ❤️ On Life and Legacy ? “I created Vanguard, but Vanguard created me. It’s not my victory — it’s gratitude for the chance to serve.” ? “Every day is a chance to do something not for yourself.” ? “You can measure success with money. Or with a conscience, you don’t have to justify.” It was a lot of work! Click to like + Write in the comments your favorite books about the financial market Best regards, EXCAVO _____________________ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
?Gold has once again rebounded to the 3020-3025 range in the short term. You might think the bulls have regained control, but I see this rebound as a prime opportunity to short gold. ?Currently, a new descending channel has formed within gold’s short-term structure. Despite multiple rebound attempts, the price has failed to break above this channel, further reinforcing its downward pressure. Additionally, on the daily chart, gold has printed three consecutive bearish candlesticks, undermining bullish sentiment and weakening confidence. This has also diminished the effectiveness of the 3000 support level, increasing the likelihood of further downside. ?Trade Idea: Xauusd: Sell at 3015-3025 TP:3005-2995 SL:Adjust according to risk tolerance. ?Trading means that everything has results and everything has feedback. I have been committed to market trading and trading strategy sharing, striving to improve the winning rate of trading and maximize profits. If you want to copy trading signals to make a profit, or master independent trading skills and thinking, you can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to copy trading strategies and signals
Gold news: The rise of the US dollar index benefited from Trump's tariff policy. Just yesterday, Trump suddenly announced: a 25% tariff on the purchase of oil and natural gas from Venezuela, and claimed that individual tariffs would be reduced. The market's tense nerves were released, and the US dollar index rose sharply. As the end of the month approaches, the market needs to rebalance its investment portfolio, increase the allocation of US dollars to hedge against unknown risks, and push the US dollar to continue to rise. Yesterday, the market news was light. Today, the market will welcome the speech of Federal Reserve Board Governor Kugler on "Economic Outlook and Entrepreneurship". Immediately afterwards, New York Fed Williams will speak at a public event. In addition, there is the March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index at 10 pm. The above events and data are concentrated in the evening tonight, which will have a certain impact on the market and need to be paid attention to. The price of gold has begun to retreat from its historical high, and the power of safe-haven buying has eased. This retreat momentum is expected to intensify further, especially in terms of technology. Gold technical analysis: Currently, the price of gold is running in a similar triangle range, and the correction cycle is prolonged. On the one hand, the bulls rebounded after the pressure, and it was difficult to return to the strong position directly; on the other hand, the retracement was supported by the key top and bottom conversion support belt of 3005-3000. This trading day focuses on the gains and losses below the low of 3000 at the end of last Friday, and the breakthrough below the 3030 pressure line above. If it fails to break through, it is likely to fluctuate around this range during the day. Gold operation suggestions: short near the rebound of 3020-3025, long near the retracement of 3000-3005. The two orders of gold on Monday were perfectly grasped, and now everyone has made a profit. The two orders on Monday ended perfectly. If your current gold operation is not ideal, I hope I can help you avoid detours in your investment. The information I recently shared about the gold market has received a lot of feedback, and everyone said it was very helpful! If you don’t know when to enter the market, you can follow me ?, I will release specific signals in real time, and remember to pay attention to the bottom ? signal in time.
30 EMA (Red, 86,440): Indicates short-term momentum. 200 EMA (Blue, 85,153): Represents long-term trend support. Support and Resistance Zones Support Zone (Purple Box - ~86,271 to 85,153): Price is likely to bounce from here. Resistance Zone (~87,149 and above): Breakout above this could push price higher. Trade Setup Entry Consideration: The price is currently testing a demand zone (purple) after a pullback. Target (Take Profit - 90,118): Expecting a bullish move. Stop Loss (~86,658 or lower): To manage risk. Potential Price Action If Bitcoin holds above the purple demand zone and 30 EMA, it could rally to 90,118. A breakdown below 86,271 could push it toward 84,366 or lower. Conclusion Bullish Bias: If price holds above the support level. Bearish Risk: If it breaks below the purple zone. Recommendation: Monitor support at 86,271 and 85,153, as a bounce from these areas could confirm an uptrend.
Look like head and shoulder kiss neckline and say good bye If price stays below, it should go way lower Shorted it and added more as this trendline break is good risk reward for me. Good luck
H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Bias and analysis remains the same as analysis dated 23 March 2025. Price has printed a bearish CHoCH following printing further all time highs. Price is now trading within an established internal range. I will however continue to monitor price. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or nested Daily and H4 demand levels before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,057.590. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty. H4 Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/U4cVPyMO/ M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Analysis and bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 24 March 2025. As per analysis dated 19 March 2025 whereby I mentioned as an alternative scenario that internal range has significantly narrowed. All HTF's require a pullback, therefore, it would be completely viable if price printed a bearish iBOS. This is how price printed, by printing a bearish iBOS. Price has yet to print a bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation, however, price has traded into premium of 50% internal EQ, therefore, I am happy to confirm internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price has traded in to premium of 50% EQ and has mitigated M15 supply zone. Technically, price to target weak internal low priced at 2,999.465. Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/90tKtQKJ/