A rally today to test the previous highs is possible, but be aware that in this sideways range, what comes up then goes down and vice versa.
Support and resistance levels are not that scary when you're trading against them. You just have to know what you're looking for. Here is a prime example of resistance being hammered by price which usually leads to a continuation in a bullish directions. Weekly keltner channel chart, the weekly momentum chart and the daily EMA chart all support the idea of a long here.
Next gold target don't miss it Not financial advice trade and menege your owner risk
Gold continued to be bullish in the morning, and the 3400 mark has been broken. How will it evolve next? The US dollar index directly fell on Monday morning, and the US Y index fell by more than 8% this year, causing gold to rise in a variable. The rise in gold caused by this situation will be greatly adjusted due to the recovery of the US dollar! The key to winning or losing tonight lies between 20 and 22 o'clock. If the US stock market opens, it will fall below the 98 mark due to the southward movement of the US dollar, creating a new low since April 2022! The market's trust in the US dollar as a global reserve currency has declined! The possibility of turning to other safe-haven assets has increased, thereby increasing the variable of gold rising. If based on this logic, tonight's 20-23 o'clock cycle is the main winning or losing day of this week! Hypothetical principle: If it is postponed to the north during the day, everyone should pay attention to the selling pressure near 3415. As the price changes, the selling pressure is more likely to occur! And the defense line will rise in each round of corrective retracement! Short-term defense line: 3355-3370-3383-3392 Pressure level above: 3430-3458 Risk notice: 1. When everyone is paying attention, long positions may fall at any time, and the range will not be less than 50-80 points! 2. The decline of the US dollar index will lead to a collapse in futures, which will trigger a chain reaction. Traders will face the possibility of gold settlement to fill the gap in other markets!
Here’s a clean and consistent version My gold trade signal: --- ✨ GOLD 4H Chart Trade Setup Technical Analysis: Gold has broken the trendline resistance on the 4H chart, signaling bullish momentum and a potential trend reversal. Entry: 3,405 Target: 3,520 Bias: Bullish Confirmation: Trendline breakout on 4H chart --- Let me know if you'd like all three signals (ETH, BTC, GOLD) combined into a single report or formatted for social media or Telegram.
I want to share with you a mindset about why, as a trader, you often face trouble when the market hasn’t yet shown a clear Swing Buy or Swing Sell signal. When the market is in a good state, meaning it’s showing a clear Uptrend or Downtrend, you’re almost guaranteed to make a profit. However, during such times, your only issue is taking profits too early, scalping prematurely. You then re-enter at a new, higher position than before and continue scalping multiple times within a single Swing trend. As the Swing trend nears its end, that’s when the market starts to take back the profits you made earlier. The market reclaims the capital it “lent” you and even collects some of your gains as interest. When the market enters a phase of unclear direction or is preparing for a new trend, you carry the Swing mindset from the previous phase into this Scalping phase, expecting the market to deliver the same big profits as before. This is exactly why your positions are prone to losses and frequently hit Stop Losses, causing you to lose a chunk of your remaining capital. This is how the market takes money out of your hands. Do you find yourself in this situation?
As Q1 earnings roll in, Wall Street is digesting a rare divergence: strong fundamentals across much of corporate America paired with deepening investor anxiety. While companies are largely beating expectations, looming tariff shocks and tech sector fragility are suppressing sentiment—and returns. Tactical positioning is crucial at times like this. This paper describes the outlook for the coming earnings season and posits options strategies that astute portfolio managers can deploy to generate solid yield with fixed downside. Resilient Earnings Growth in the Current Season The Q1 2025 earnings season is underway, and early results show resilient growth despite an unsettled backdrop. According to a Factset report , with about 12% of S&P 500 firms reporting so far, 71% have beaten earnings estimates and 61% have topped revenue forecasts. Blended earnings are tracking about +7.2% year-over-year, on pace for a seventh-straight quarter of growth. However, only two sectors have seen improved earnings outlook since the quarter began (led by Financials), while most others have faced modest downgrades. Forward guidance is also skewing cautious – roughly 59% of S&P companies issuing full-year EPS forecasts have guided below prior consensus, reflecting corporate wariness amid macro uncertainty. https://www.tradingview.com/x/8x07Rn3j/ Source: Factset as of 17/April Financials Front-Load the Upside The first wave of reports was dominated by major banks, which largely delivered strong profits and upside surprises. Volatile markets proved a boon to trading desks: JPMorgan’s equities trading revenue surged 48% to a record $3.8 billion, and Bank of America’s stock traders hauled in a record $2.2 billion as clients repositioned portfolios around tariff news. https://www.tradingview.com/x/FiwW0StU/ Source: Factset as of 17/April These tailwinds – along with still-solid net interest income – helped lenders like JPMorgan and Citigroup post double-digit profit growth (JPM’s Q1 earnings up 9% to $5.07/share; Citi’s up 21% to $1.96). FactSet notes that positive surprises from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and peers have boosted the Financials sector’s blended earnings growth rate to 6.1% (from 2.6% as of March 31), making it a key contributor to the S&P 500’s overall gains. https://www.tradingview.com/x/nhbVXPst/ Even so, bank executives struck a wary tone. JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that “considerable turbulence” from geopolitics and trade tensions is weighing on client sentiment. Wells Fargo likewise warned that U.S. tariffs could slow the economy and trimmed its full-year net interest income outlook to the low end of its range. Across Wall Street, management teams indicated they are shoring up reserves and bracing for potential credit headwinds if import levies drive up inflation or dent growth. Tech Titans Under Scrutiny Attention now turns to the yet-to-report mega-cap tech firms, which face a very different set of challenges. Stocks like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet – collectively heavyweights in the index – have been battered by the escalating trade war, eroding some of their premium valuations. Apple’s share price plunged over 20% in early April on fears that new tariffs could jack up the cost of an iPhone to nearly $2,300, underscoring these companies’ exposure to global supply chains. https://www.tradingview.com/x/rwmtIYY5/ The tech sector’s forward P/E remains about 23 (well above the market’s 19), leaving little room for error if earnings guidance disappoints. With Washington’s tariff barrage and retaliatory threats casting a long shadow, Big Tech finds itself on the front line of the global trade war, suddenly vulnerable on multiple fronts. Any cautious outlook from these giants – which account for an outsized share of S&P 500 profits – could heavily sway overall forward earnings sentiment. Market Context and Reaction Despite solid Q1 fundamentals, equity markets have been whipsawed by macro headlines. The S&P 500 slid into correction territory, falling roughly 10% since the start of April and about 14% below its February peak, as investors de-rated stocks in anticipation of tariff fallout and a potential economic slowdown. Consumer inflation expectations have skyrocketed with risk delaying rate cuts in the near-term. https://www.tradingview.com/x/FHBbrIPG/ This pullback has tempered valuations somewhat – the index’s forward P/E has eased to ~19 (down from ~20 at quarter-end) – even though consensus earnings estimate for 2025 have only inched down. Notably, the high-flying “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap stocks that led last year’s rally are all sharply lower year-to-date (Alphabet –20%, Tesla –40%), a stark reversal that has dented market breadth and sentiment. https://www.tradingview.com/x/a3Sq7rJ3/ Source: Factset as of 17/April Investors are rewarding only the strong earnings winners: for instance, Bank of America’s stock jumped over 4% after its earnings beat, and JPMorgan rose 3% on its results. Such reactions imply the market is discriminating – strong execution is being acknowledged even as the broader mood remains cautious. https://www.tradingview.com/x/bnxNz0cg/ Source: Factset as of 17/April Hypothetical Trade Setup Solid corporate performance is offset by significant macro risks, warranting a nimble and selective approach. While recent positive earnings may provide a short-term boost, downbeat sentiment and concerns over future tech earnings could limit gains. https://www.tradingview.com/x/MQjapKOQ/ In this uncertain environment, investors may adopt a fundamentally driven view that the S&P 500 could rise in the near term due to strong earnings. However, the upside appears limited, supporting the case for a bullish call spread. https://www.tradingview.com/x/7gifsaSw/ Earnings release dates for the Super 7 With major tech firms set to report earnings in early May, investors can consider the 2nd May MES Friday weekly options. A narrow bull call spread offers a higher probability of profitability. In this hypothetical setup, the long call is at 5,250 and the short call at 5,390, resulting in a breakeven point of 5,312 at expiry. This position requires net premium of USD 315/contract (USD 62.5/index point x 5). The position returns a max profit of USD 385/contract for all strikes > 5,390 and a max loss of USD 315/contract for all strikes < 5,250. https://www.tradingview.com/x/2q7CDEFn/ This strategy is most successful when the S&P 500 rises slowly. A simulation of this scenario using the CME QuikStrike Strategy Simulator has been provided below. https://www.tradingview.com/x/IRIqi4Yy/ MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Bitcoin is currently facing a key moment in price structure as it approaches a significant high time frame resistance zone. Price is testing a major confluence level at $87,459 — a technical cluster that may serve as a ceiling for this leg of the move. This zone includes multiple overlapping indicators, increasing the likelihood of a potential rejection and pullback. Key Points: Bitcoin is testing $87,459 — a zone of major confluence between key technical indicators. The area includes the .618 Fibonacci level, value area high, and VWAP pool. Current conditions present risk for longs, with better opportunities likely at lower levels. This current region is one of the most critical resistance zones seen in recent weeks. The $87,459 level aligns with several technical tools: the 4618 Fibonacci extension, the value area high from recent ranges, and a VWAP pool, all of which act as strong resistance when combined. Price action here is showing signs of hesitation, and failure to cleanly break above could trigger a short-term reversal. Internally, even the daily chart is suggesting caution, as the structure begins to show exhaustion signals. Momentum has slowed, and the move feels extended without a healthy pullback. Given the number of traders likely to be trapped in longs here, the market could easily rotate lower and flush out overleveraged positions, reinforcing the idea that this level is a logical rejection point. From a trade management perspective, this is a risky place to long. While some scalpers may attempt to catch upside continuation, the higher-probability long setups will emerge only after a pullback to more favorable demand zones. Until then, patience is warranted for bullish entries. What to Expect in the Coming Price Action: A rejection from the $87,459 region could lead to a retracement toward the $74,000 area, where support is more clearly defined. For bullish continuation, Bitcoin must first reclaim and hold above this resistance zone with strength. Until then, longs remain high risk, and a move lower offers a better reward-to-risk scenario for positioning.
The SPDR Select Sector Industrial ETF dropped in early April, and some traders may expect another push to the downside. The first pattern on today’s chart is the March 13 low of $128.26. XLI peaked $0.44 under that level this month, which may suggest old support has become new resistance. Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) recently had a “death cross” below its 200-day SMA. That may suggest the long-term trend has gotten more bearish. Third, the stochastics oscillator’s leading line crossed under the smoothing signal line. Fourth, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has remained under the 21-day EMA. Finally, XLI hit a 52-weeek low of $112.75 on April 7. Is a retest of that support needed? Standardized Performances for the ETF mentioned above: SPDR Select Sector Industrial ETF (XLI) 1-year: +4.06% 5-years: +122.11% 10-year: +135.02% (As of March 31, 2025) Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs") are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com/DisclosureOptions . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com/Important-Information/ . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com/DisclosureTSCompanies for further important information explaining what this means.
It's also came at or near a long-term bottom. If you're a long-biased trader looking for high-probability entries, this setup deserves your attention. The weekly RSI just hit oversold territory — something that’s only happened 4 times in the last 10 years. Each of those times? It marked a major bottom or the start of a strong bullish trend. We’re also bouncing near long-term horizontal support (~$420) and holding above a rising trendline that’s defined the bull market since 2018. If price continues to hold this zone and RSI starts curling back up, I’ll be looking to go long. Stop below $420. Reward-to-risk looks solid if momentum confirms. Not calling the exact bottom — just positioning where the risk makes sense.