At present, the short-term resistance is 3025/3030 for shorts, and the support for pullback is 2980/2977 for longs, and the limit is 2970. Maintain these positions for trading. I think it is mainly a wash-out. The long-term price of gold has not changed, and what matters more on that day is the current long-short conversion. Today, the resistance of gold is the pressure area of 3025-30. Remember, this adjustment is over after the break of 3055 US dollars. On the whole, the short-term operation strategy of gold is recommended to be mainly long on pullbacks and short on rebounds. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 3025-3030 line of resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 2975-2980 line of support. Short position strategy: When gold rebounds to around 3025-3030, short 20% of the position in batches, stop loss 6 points, target around 3000-2990, break to 2980; Long position strategy: When gold pulls back to around 2978-2980, long 20% of the position in batches, stop loss 6 points, target around 3005-3015, break to 3025;
A brief look at what we to expect on Wednesday on EURUSD. We are currently looking for price to add more confluence to support our BUY scenario then go on to the 5min for entries.
Hello, Gold edged higher on Tuesday, supported by a weaker dollar and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, despite pressure from rising U.S. Treasury yields. Spot gold rose 0.1% to 2984.16 per ounce by mid-afternoon, while futures settled 0.5% higher at 2990.20. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a one-week high, dampening gold's appeal. Still, ongoing trade uncertainty and potential U.S. interest rate cuts kept the outlook bullish. A break above 3,055 could open the path to 3130, with stronger resistance near 3272.314, while weakness below 3,000 might push prices down to 2950-2930. Market anxiety intensified after President Trump’s announcement of a 104% tariff on Chinese goods, fueling safe-haven demand. Gold, up 15% this year, also benefited from a weaker dollar, which makes it cheaper for foreign buyers. We now await Fed meeting minutes for clues on rate cuts, with a 40% chance priced in for May. Expectations of easing could drive gold prices higher in the near term. The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1D-1Y timeframes! No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost TradeWithTheTrend3344
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.5% tomorrow, as global economic conditions and domestic data signal a weaker outlook. While there are risks of a larger cut, the RBNZ is likely to hold back, as uncertainties surrounding the global trade environment, particularly tensions between the US and China, are contributing to global growth concerns. The New Zealand economy is facing sluggish growth, with recent domestic business surveys showing weak economic indicators and lower-than-expected GDP growth for Q1. Despite this, the RBNZ is still inclined to reduce the OCR further, with the intention of bringing it closer to a neutral level of around 3%. However, they will likely avoid committing to a sub-3% OCR at this stage, leaving that decision for future discussions in May. The RBNZ aims to avoid creating market instability with a dramatic policy shift, opting instead to focus on financial stability and making gradual adjustments. The May Monetary Policy Statement will provide clearer guidance as the economic outlook and budget details become more defined. The current OCR forecast of 3.25% may be revised downwards, reflecting the growing downside risks.
?Analysis: Following up from a previous breakdown, NVIDIA has now tapped into a high-probability Weekly Order Block (OB) just above the sell-side liquidity zone at $88.97. This level also aligns with a structural area of support, making it a prime zone for a potential bullish reversal. Key signs: Price is showing early signs of displacement from the OB. If this zone holds, we could be looking at a 77% move back up to the buyside liquidity at $157.92. Watch for a strong weekly candle close above $96.30 to confirm the bounce. ? Invalidation: If price fails to hold this OB and breaks below $88.97, expect a deeper move into the $76.06 zone. ? Summary: Patience is key. We’re sitting on a solid base for a potential bullish push — now it’s all about the confirmation candle. ? DYOR — Don't just HODL, study the chart!
//@version=5 // Indicator: Heikin Ashi Smoothed + VWAP Trend Detector // Author: Grok (for fun and profit) // --- Heikin Ashi Smoothed --- length = input.int(14, "Smoothing Length", minval=1, maxval=50) // محاسبه کندلهای Heikin Ashi ha_close = (open + high + low + close) / 4 ha_open = na(ha_open ) ? (open + close) / 2 : (ha_open + ha_close ) / 2 ha_high = math.max(high, math.max(ha_open, ha_close)) ha_low = math.min(low, math.min(ha_open, ha_close)) // نرمسازی کندلها با میانگین متحرک ha_smooth_close = ta.sma(ha_close, length) ha_smooth_open = ta.sma(ha_open, length) ha_smooth_high = ta.sma(ha_high, length) ha_smooth_low = ta.sma(ha_low, length) // --- VWAP --- vwap_value = ta.vwap(close) // --- منطق تشخیص روند --- // روند صعودی: کندل صافشده صعودی + قیمت بالای VWAP trend_up = (ha_smooth_close > ha_smooth_open) and (close > vwap_value) // روند نزولی: کندل صافشده نزولی + قیمت زیر VWAP trend_down = (ha_smooth_close < ha_smooth_open) and (close < vwap_value) // خنثی: وقتی هیچکدوم از شرایط بالا برقرار نباشه // --- خروجیها --- // رنگ کندلها برای تشخیص بصری col = trend_up ? color.green : trend_down ? color.red : color.gray plotcandle(ha_smooth_open, ha_smooth_high, ha_smooth_low, ha_smooth_close, title="HA Smoothed", color=col) // خط VWAP plot(vwap_value, "VWAP", color=color.yellow, linewidth=2) // سیگنال روند trend_signal = trend_up ? 1 : trend_down ? -1 : 0 plotshape(trend_signal == 1, title="Uptrend", location=location.belowbar, color=color.green, style=shape.triangleup, size=size.tiny) plotshape(trend_signal == -1, title="Downtrend", location=location.abovebar, color=color.red, style=shape.triangledown, size=size.tiny) // هشدار برای تغییر روند alertcondition(trend_signal != trend_signal , title="Trend Change", message="Trend has changed!")
1. Big-Picture Narrative There’s increasing talk of a “104% China Tariff,” bringing back memories of Donald J. Trump’s 1988 loss in a piano auction to a Japanese buyer—an event some speculate influenced his later calls for high import taxes. Fast-forward to today, and concerns about renewed tariff escalation add extra pressure on the markets. The user’s view: unless there’s a political shift—where Republicans become more concerned about broader voter sentiment than aligning with Trump—this could drive the S&P 500 down to 3000. While that is quite a distance from current levels, it underscores how aggressive policy moves (tariffs, trade wars) can weigh heavily on equities. 2. Hourly & Daily Chart Overview Short-Term (Hourly) Price has trended steadily downward, with each bounce finding new sellers at lower highs. Key Levels on the chart include: 510.84 (L. Vol ST 1a) – A noteworthy pivot-turned-resistance. 498.01 (L. Vol ST 2a) – Important resistance-turned-support level that recently broke. 485.18 (H. Vol Sell Target 1a) – Currently acting as near-term support. 472.35 (Weeks High Short) – Further support below 485. Longer-Term (Daily) The broader trend remains bearish, with high-volume selling in the last few sessions. RSI on the daily is dipping into the 30s, indicating oversold conditions—but remember that oversold can persist in a strong downtrend. Elevated ATR (14) around 16 suggests volatility remains high; large intraday swings can occur. 3. Possible Trade Setups A) Bearish Continuation (Primary) Entry Trigger: A failure to reclaim 498 (L. Vol ST 2a) or a decisive break below 485.18 on strong volume. Profit Targets: First Target: 472.35 (Weeks High Short) Second Target: 459.52 (Half 1 Short) for a larger downside move Extreme Target: If policy missteps intensify and no political moderation occurs, the user foresees a slide to S&P 3000—an extreme scenario but a reminder of how macro risks can extend a downtrend. Stop Loss: Just above 500–502 if you’re entering on a breakdown, to protect against whipsaw should SPY manage a strong recovery above key resistance. B) Oversold Bounce (Alternative) Entry Trigger: A strong reclaim of 498–500 and at least one hourly close above it, indicating buyers have stepped in. Profit Targets: First Target: 510.84 (L. Vol ST 1a) Second Target: 523.67 (Best Price Short level) if bullish momentum accelerates Stop Loss: Below 485 to limit risk in case the rally fails and downtrend resumes. 4. Macro & Political Watch Tariffs & Trade Policy: New or increased tariffs can rapidly shift market sentiment. Keep an eye on headlines for abrupt policy changes or legislative updates. Political Dynamics: If Republicans shift their stance or emphasize broader voter concerns over aligning with Trump’s trade approach, it might calm markets. Conversely, unwavering support for tariff policies could amplify market downside. Economic Indicators: In addition to politics, watch earnings releases and consumer data. If the economy shows unexpected weakness amid tariff concerns, selling pressure could intensify. 5. Final Thoughts Volatility is Elevated: Intraday whipsaws are common; stay disciplined with stop-loss placements. Bearish Bias Persists: The trend is clearly down unless bulls can reclaim key resistance levels with conviction. Manage Risk: Always size positions appropriately given the current volatility, and remain prepared for sudden news-driven moves. In summary, tariffs and politics remain a focal point, with historical anecdotes highlighting how personal experiences can shape trade policy. Whether SPY crashes all the way to 300 (S&P 3000) depends on how severe and prolonged these headwinds become. Keep a close eye on technical levels, watch for policy announcements, and maintain a vigilant approach to risk management.
The market isn't playing fair lately. Classic TA setups are getting invalidated. Support zones crumble in seconds. Even golden cross setups fizzle out. But this isn’t the time to quit—it’s the time to get tactical. When technicals break, the silent signals from the options market become louder. That’s where Gamma Exposure (GEX) step in. This week, we saw aggressive institutional repositioning, unexpected volatility, and coordinated rotations into both risk and safety assets. Let’s talk about SPY, our macro compass. Then we’ll dive into stock-specific GEX sentiment and options setups that still offer alpha. ? SPY – Institutional Tug-of-War Trend: SPY is forming a falling wedge, which could break either way. Price is sitting just above $500, after tagging the Highest Negative GEX / PUT Wall around $505–$502, which held on Friday. GEX & Options Flow: * PUTs at 84.7% dominate the board. * IVR is 121.8, showing high implied volatility demand. * Strong support from PUT walls at $502, while CALL resistance at $547–$551 could suppress any upside. Outlook: * If $502 breaks, momentum could drag us toward $490 or even $475. * Bulls need to reclaim $520, flipping the key Gamma Wall. Strategy Suggestion: For options, consider SPY put spreads if below $505, or long SPY calls above $520 for quick squeezes—preferably with tight expiry (0DTE or 2DTE) to ride the gamma wave.
eth looks bearish. this is a scary eth scenario......
Technical Analysis Summary: Daily Chart: • Trend: Strong bearish breakdown; significant drop below support. • MACD: Deeply negative, suggesting strong bearish momentum. • RSI: Oversold at 18.48, indicating exhaustion but not yet reversal. 15-Minute Chart: • Trend: Clear downtrend continuation. • MACD: Bearish crossover sustained. • RSI: Approaching oversold (29.81), but still trending down. 3-Minute Chart: • Trend: Momentum is slowing down but still bearish. • MACD: Negative, bearish crossover. • RSI: Around 33, indicating potential short-term bounce, but no bullish divergence. ⸻ Fundamental Insight: • The broader US30 index has reacted to strong macroeconomic headwinds (possibly higher-for-longer interest rates, weak earnings, or geopolitical tensions). • No signs of dovish reversal or major catalyst for a sharp recovery. ⸻ Most Probable Trade Idea: SHORT POSITION Entry: 37070 (current price zone—ideal entry on slight retracement) Stop Loss (SL): 37320 (above minor resistance and recent local high) Take Profit (TP): 36350 (strong daily support area and psychological level) Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): • Risk: ~270 points • Reward: ~700 points FUSIONMARKETS:US30