The bearish trend is on the cards. Resistance Lines are marked in Red and Support lines are in green. Do your own home work before entering into a trade. This is just my view.
Chart Analysis: Gold Spot (XAU/USD) - 1H Timeframe Key Levels Identified: Supply Zone: Marked in red at the top, indicating a strong resistance area where selling pressure has been high. Resistance at 2,930.16: The price has tested this level multiple times but failed to break above. Support at 2,880.10: A key support level where price has previously reversed. Price Action: The price recently tested the resistance at 2,930.16 but failed to break above. A bearish rejection from this level suggests sellers are in control. There is a short-term downtrend expectation, as indicated by the blue downward arrow. Trade Setup: Entry Area: Around 2,908 (current price level). Target 1 (TP1): 2,896.30 (minor support level). Target 2 (TP2): 2,880.00 (stronger support level). Stop Loss (SL): Likely placed above 2,935.27 to manage risk. Conclusion: The chart suggests a potential short (sell) trade, targeting lower support zones. If price breaks below 2,896.30, it could head towards 2,880.10. A breakout above 2,930.16 would invalidate the bearish setup and indicate bullish momentum.
Economic Data and Policy: Upcoming CPI (Consumer Price Index) data is a key focus for investors, as it will provide insights into inflation trends. President Trump's tariff policies are creating uncertainty and contributing to market volatility. U.S. equity positioning has been holding steady, even with recent losses. Sector-Specific Trends: There are shifts in investment strategies, with some analysts upgrading European stocks while adjusting their outlook for U.S. equities. There is also information regarding individual stock movement, with information regarding companies such as Tesla, and other large tech companies.
The race to bolster European defence capabilities is well underway. Since the invasion of Ukraine, European leaders have intensified calls for increased defence spending. The continent, long reliant on US security guarantees, is now facing a critical inflection point. Recent moves by the US administration to engage with Russia without consulting its European allies or Ukraine have underscored the urgent need for Europe to take charge of its own defence. This geopolitical reality has forced European leaders to acknowledge that relying on US support is no longer a guaranteed strategy, accelerating discussions on independent military capabilities and funding mechanisms. Why is European defence spending rising? For decades, the US has outspent Europe on defence, contributing more than two-thirds of NATO’s1 overall budget. However, NATO estimates that in 2024, 23 out of 32 members met the 2% GDP2 defence spending target, compared to just seven members in 2022 and three in 20143. More ambitious goals are being discussed. Poland is leading the way with a 4.12% of GDP2 defence budget, while discussions at NATO suggest some countries may need to increase spending to 3% or higher1. Adding another layer of complexity is the US Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative, which is beginning to reshape US defence priorities. The shift from cost-plus to fixed-price contracts under DOGE is putting financial pressure on defence companies most exposed to the US, which may see constraints on long-term spending commitments. This could have two contrasting effects: while it may limit US capability to fund European defence through NATO, it could also drive European nations to increase domestic procurement and reduce dependency on US defence systems. Additionally, emerging security threats, including cyber warfare, artificial intelligence (AI)-driven military technology, and the growing presence of authoritarian regimes, have reinforced the need for increased defence investments. Europe’s reliance on outdated Cold War-era military equipment is another critical factor, pushing leaders to modernise their arsenals. How will Europe fund its defence expansion? Ramping up defence spending is a monumental task, especially given high sovereign debt levels across Europe. Yet, leaders are exploring creative solutions to secure the necessary funding. One approach is to reallocate existing European Union (EU) budgets, with discussions centring on repurposing unspent Cohesion Funds and Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) loans. However, legal restrictions within EU treaties may limit their direct application to military expenditures. Another potential route is the issuance of European Defence Bonds, mirroring the successful NextGenerationEU pandemic recovery fund. By pooling resources at the EU level, this could offer a coordinated and cost-effective funding mechanism. At the same time, private investment and public-private partnerships are gaining traction. Defence contractors and institutional investors are increasingly seen as strategic partners in financing large-scale projects, particularly in weapons systems, cyber defence, and artificial intelligence. Governments may leverage these collaborations to accelerate procurement and technological advancements. Despite these options, one thing is clear—Europe must find a sustainable funding model to support its defence ambitions without derailing economic stability. Whether through EU-level financing, national budget reallocations, or private-sector involvement, securing long-term defence investment will be paramount in ensuring Europe’s security and strategic autonomy. Impact on defence stocks: can the strong run continue? European defence stocks have had a strong run since 2022, driven by surging order books, government contracts, and the realisation that military spending is no longer optional. Over the past year, Europe defence stocks rose 40.8%, outpacing broader European equities (+11.4%)4 . Defence stocks trade at a historical P/E5 ratio of ~14x, slightly above the long-term average, though still below peak multiples6 There are three key trends fuelling defence stock momentum: Backlogs at record highs: European defence contractors are sitting on unprecedented order books, with consensus forecasting 2024-29 CAGRs7 of ~11% for sales and ~16% for both adjusted EBIT8 and adjusted EPS9. These growth rates compare to just 8%, 11% and 12%, respectively, for the 2019-24 period10. Government commitments: with long-term contracts locked in and additional spending likely, demand visibility remains strong. EU’s push for strategic autonomy: The European Commission has proposed a European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS), aimed at spending at least 50% of procurement budgets within the EU by 2030 and 60% by 203511. Conclusion: a new era for European defence The European defence sector is entering a new era of investment and strategic autonomy. With rising geopolitical risks and uncertainty over US support, European nations are taking proactive steps to build a more robust and self-sufficient military ecosystem. While funding challenges persist, the momentum behind higher budgets, technological investments, and NATO commitments makes this shift not just necessary, but inevitable. With the EU backing structural shifts in procurement, defence stocks remain well-positioned, particularly those with exposure to land (for example, ammunition, vehicles) and air (for example, air defence, missiles, drones) domains. 1NATO = The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (an intergovernmental transnational military alliance of 32 member states). 2GDP = gross domestic product. 3NATO 2023 Vilnius Summit Declaration. 4Bloomberg, Europe defence stocks are represented by the MSCI Europe Aerospace & Defence Index and European Equities represented by MSCI Europe Index. 5P/E = price-to-earnings. 6Bloomberg as of 31 January 2025. 7CAGR = compound annual growth rate. 8EBIT = earnings before interest and taxes. 9EPS = earnings per share. 10Company data, Visible Alpha Consensus, WisdomTree as of 31 January 2025. 11European Commission: Joint communication to the European Parliament, the Council as of August 2024. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research, or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees, or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
USDJPY is currently trading at 147.50, having recently broken out of a falling wedge pattern, a strong bullish reversal signal. After the breakout, the pair has completed its retesting phase, confirming support at lower levels. With bullish momentum building, we now expect an upward move toward the 152.50 target, implying a 300 pips gain from current levels. From a technical analysis perspective, the falling wedge is a well-known bullish continuation pattern, indicating that sellers have weakened and buyers are stepping in. Now that the retest is complete, the next key resistance levels to watch are 149.50 and 151.00, with 152.50 being the final target. Support levels are now formed at 146.50 and 145.80, where buyers could step in if any short-term pullback occurs. On the fundamental side, USDJPY is influenced by Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan monetary policy differences. The Fed's hawkish stance and rising U.S. Treasury yields continue to support USD strength. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose policy keeps the yen weaker, allowing the bullish USDJPY momentum to continue. Additionally, risk sentiment and global economic trends favor the dollar as a safe-haven asset. With the falling wedge breakout confirmed and fundamentals supporting further gains, USDJPY looks poised for a strong bullish rally. Traders should monitor volume and price action for confirmation, as a push above 149.50 could accelerate the move toward 152.50. This setup presents a great opportunity to capture a high-probability trade in the coming sessions.
? ? ? Asset: Willdan Group (WLDN) ? Timeframe: 30-Min Chart ? Setup Type: Bearish Breakdown Trade ? Trade Plan (Short Position) ✅ Entry Zone: Below $40.40 (Breakdown Confirmation) ✅ Stop-Loss (SL): Above $42.02 (Invalidation Level) ? Take Profit Targets: ? TP1: $38.32 (First Support Level) ? TP2: $35.82 (Extended Bearish Move) ? Risk-Reward Ratio Calculation ? Risk (SL Distance): $42.02 - $40.40 = $1.62 per unit ? Reward to TP1: $40.40 - $38.32 = $2.08 (1:1.28 R/R) ? Reward to TP2: $40.40 - $35.82 = $4.58 (1:2.83 R/R) ? Favorable Risk-Reward Setup – Targeting a 1:2.83 R/R at TP2. ? Technical Analysis & Strategy ? Bearish Rising Wedge Breakdown – Price has broken below the ascending support line. ? Weak Buying Pressure – Struggling to hold above $40.40, signaling seller dominance. ? Volume Confirmation Needed – Strong selling pressure below $40.40 confirms momentum. ? Momentum Shift Expected – Breakdown could lead to $38.32, then $35.82. ? Key Resistance & Support Levels ? $42.02 – Stop-Loss / Resistance Level ? $40.40 – Breakdown Level / Short Entry ⚪ $38.32 – First Target / TP1 ? $35.82 – Final Target / TP2 ? Trade Execution & Risk Management ? Volume Confirmation – Ensure strong selling pressure before entry. ? Trailing Stop Strategy – Move SL to breakeven ($40.40) after hitting TP1 ($38.32). ? Partial Profit Booking Strategy: ✔ Take 50% profits at $38.32, let the rest run to $35.82. ✔ Adjust SL to breakeven ($40.40) after TP1 is hit. ⚠️ Fake Breakdown Risk: ❌ If price moves back above $40.40, exit early to limit losses. ❌ Wait for a strong bearish candle close before aggressive entry. ? Final Thoughts ✔ Bearish Setup – Breakdown signals downside potential. ✔ Momentum Shift Possible – Watch for volume confirmation. ✔ Favorable Risk-Reward Ratio – 1:2.83 R/R to TP2. ? Stick to the plan, manage risk, and trade smart! ?? ? Hashtags for Engagement: #WLDN ? #StockTrading ? #TradingNews ? #MarketUpdate ? #Investing ? #ShortTrade ? #Stocks ? #ProfittoPath ? #SwingTrading ? #DayTrading ⚡ #TechnicalAnalysis ? #StockSignals ? #FinancialFreedom ? #MarketTrends ? #StockAlerts ? #TradeSmart ? #Bearish ? #RiskManagement ⚠️ #TradingCommunity ? #SmartTrading ? #MarketAnalysis ? #TrendBreakdown ?
We are about a month into the Chinese Year of the Snake. The preceding Year of the Dragon (10 February 2024 to 28 January 2025) brought significant momentum to the asset class with broad commodities rising 10%, precious metals rising 36%, industrial metals rising 12%, and even energy and agriculture mustering a late gain (close to 2% each)1. However, the Year of the Snake presents several macro challenges for commodities. Renewed trade protectionism from the US, under the new Trump Administration, is likely to dampen global trade. Additionally, higher bond yields and a strong US dollar create further headwinds for the commodities market. China’s reticence to stimulate big is also holding back the asset class. Despite these headwinds, we have identified several micro factors that could provide support for certain commodities—what we refer to as our ‘antivenoms’. We remain optimistic about precious metals, aluminium, and European natural gas. Additionally, some of the macroeconomic challenges may ultimately prove less severe than initially anticipated, creating potential upside opportunities for commodities that currently reflect bearish sentiment. Strong US dollar The recent strength of the US dollar has historically correlated with weaker commodity prices. While this pattern has been inconsistent post-COVID-19, the dollar's resurgence could once again pressure commodities. Historical data suggests a strong dollar often aligns with declining commodity values. Trump’s trade policies and market impact Donald Trump’s return to the presidency introduces uncertainty into trade and commodity markets. Trump's first presidency saw a trade war with China and other nations, negatively impacting global trade and commodity prices. While extreme tariff measures have often been bargaining tactics, the risk of real implementation remains. In his second term, some tariffs were announced and then delayed; at the time of writing, we still have no real guide as to whether they will be implemented or when. This uncertainty is already dampening market sentiment and increasing long-term interest rates, further constraining commodities. Economic and inflationary concerns Tariffs could raise inflation in the US while simultaneously depressing global commodity prices due to reduced demand. This dynamic may complicate the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) efforts to control inflation, potentially leading to prolonged high interest rates. Climate policy reversals Trump has vowed to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement and declared a “national energy emergency,” reversing climate regulations and boosting fossil fuel production. His administration is expected to cancel a $6 billion Department of Energy program aimed at industrial emissions reduction and repeal incentives for electric vehicles. These changes could suppress demand for critical materials used in clean technology, such as base metals. At the same time, deregulation of oil, gas, and mining operations may increase the supply of key commodities like copper, aluminium, nickel, and cobalt. Major projects, such as Rio Tinto’s copper mine in Arizona, could proceed after years of delays. While immediate production increases are unlikely in 2025, long-term supply growth is possible. Geopolitical risks and energy markets A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, brokered just before Trump's inauguration, has eased some geopolitical risk, though its stability remains uncertain. As we write, a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is being brokered by the US. Short-term oil price spikes are possible if sanctions are initially tightened to get parties to the negotiating table but, ultimately, we could see easing oil and gas prices if a deal is hashed out. The US has been pressuring Europe to purchase more American natural gas, but Russia’s LNG shipments to the EU remain significant. A resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war could weaken US leverage in energy negotiations, making Europe less dependent on American gas. Stricter enforcement of Iranian oil sanctions under Trump could drive oil prices higher. However, OPEC2 members may counteract this by increasing supply, potentially offsetting price gains. China’s economic strategy and commodity demand China remains the world’s largest consumer of commodities, yet its recent economic weakness has limited demand growth. Unlike previous economic cycles where China launched large stimulus measures, its current approach focuses on smaller, targeted interventions. The government has stabilised the real estate sector but remains wary of excessive stimulus due to debt concerns. China is investing heavily in clean technology and renewable energy infrastructure, supporting metal prices despite weak real estate demand. US tariffs on China could accelerate its push toward energy independence, promoting domestic adoption of solar, battery, and electric vehicle technologies. Trade tensions could escalate into retaliatory actions, such as China restricting exports of critical materials, as seen with gallium, germanium, and graphite in response to semiconductor disputes. Further restrictions could impact global supply chains for energy transition materials. China’s depreciating Yuan complicates economic policy. The People’s Bank of China has been intervening to stabilise the currency, limiting its ability to cut interest rates. While a policy shift to boost growth led to short-term market gains in 2024, further action remains constrained by currency pressures. Conclusion In the Year of the Snake, we are searching for antivenoms to counter the potential threats posed by trade wars, a strong US dollar, and a China that may be unable or unwilling to overcome its economic weakness. We see strong opportunities in gold, silver, aluminium, copper, zinc and European natural gas, as each of these has compelling drivers that could withstand broader headwinds in the commodity complex. As policies become clearer, we may find that our fears were overstated, potentially paving the way for a relief rally across the broader commodity complex. Until then, we place our confidence in these antivenoms.
In yet another striking move, US President Donald Trump has just announced plans to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, raising them from 25% to a hefty 50%. The new tariffs are slated to come into effect this Wednesday, with Trump citing Canada's intention to impose tariffs on electricity exports to the US as the catalyst for this decision. This latest escalation in trade tensions comes hot on the heels of a tumultuous Monday, which marked the worst day of 2025 for US markets. Investor fears were stoked by President Trump's aggressive tariff policies targeting America's largest trading partners, sending shockwaves through the financial landscape. The situation has left many observers questioning the broader implications of these trade policies on both the US economy and its international relationships. But one thing that has been quite clear all these years in this long-term bull market is that every time we have had a decent sell-off, dip-buyers have invariably stepped in and drove markets to new highs despite any macro concerns. Every single time we have heard cries of “this time it is different,” the bulls have prevailed, and bought the dip. Not even covid could hold the bulls back, let alone the unwinding of yen carry trades in 2024, or China’s sluggish recovery that caused local markets to tank last year, and before that the Russian invasion of Ukraine, or the bear market of 2022 when inflation surged and caused interest rates to shoot higher across the world (excluding Japan). Are we going to see yet another such recovery soon, or does the market want to go a little deeper before dip buyers emerge? That’s the key question, and one way to find clues is by looking at the charts. The S&P 500 here is testing liquidity below yesterday's low of 5567 and key support in the 5550 area. With the daily RSI now well into the oversold territory, can we see a rebound here heading deeper into the US session? By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with Forex.com
? NIFTY Trading Plan – 12-Mar-2025 (Timeframe: 15-min | Chart structure based on demand/supply and price action) Opening Scenarios ?? Gap-Up Opening (?+100 Points or more) If Nifty opens above the 22,598 resistance zone, price may initially test this level as support. ? A successful hold here can trigger a bullish rally toward the last intraday resistance at 22,800, with intraday targets around 22,700+. ? However, if Nifty fails to sustain above 22,598 and slips back inside the orange resistance zone, a corrective dip back to 22,496–22,482 may occur. ? Plan of Action: ✅ Buy on retest & strength above 22,598 ❌ Avoid fresh longs if candles close back below 22,598 Flat Opening (±100 Points) If Nifty opens near 22,520–22,482, this range becomes a decision-making zone. ? Holding above 22,520 can provide a quick upside move toward 22,598+. ? On the other hand, weakness below 22,482, especially on hourly close, can open downside toward the Opening Support Zone: 22,358–22,415. ? Plan of Action: ✅ Wait for the first 15–30 min range breakout ? Above 22,520 = bullish bias ⚠️ Below 22,482 = cautious; only scalp short with confirmation Gap-Down Opening (? -100 Points or more) A gap-down near or below 22,358–22,415 places price directly into the Opening Support Zone. ? Watch for price rejection wicks or bullish reversal candles near this zone. ? If broken decisively, Nifty may test 22,259 (last intraday support) and then the Best Buy Zone: 22,115–22,155, which aligns with the golden retracement zone. ? Plan of Action: ✅ Wait and observe price action at 22,358–22,259 ? Short only if there's breakdown with volume ? Strong bounce near 22,115–22,155 = high RR long trade setup ? Risk Management Tips for Options Traders ? ? Avoid buying OTM calls or puts after big gap openings . Wait 15–30 mins for premium decay to stabilize. ? Always place SL based on chart levels or candle close—not fixed points . ? Avoid averaging losing options positions —theta decay can kill. ? Position sizing is key: Never risk more than 1–2% of capital per trade. ? Trade with a plan, not emotions. Let levels guide your decisions. ? Summary & Key Levels ? Upside Resistance: 22,598 – 22,800 ? Key Pivot Levels: 22,520 / 22,482 ? Support Zones: 22,358 – 22,259 – 22,115 ⚠️ Best Risk-Reward Zone: 22,115 – 22,155 (Watch for reversal signs) ? Conclusion Nifty is trading in a reactive zone. Smart trading lies in reacting to key levels, not predicting. Avoid emotional trades near resistance or support—let price confirmation guide you. Patience will reward the prepared trader. ? Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered analyst. All views shared are for educational purposes only. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trades.
As can be seen in the chart we are probably dealing with a wave (c). Which could turn out to become a Zigzag bearish corrective pattern, which suggest lower economical and geopolitical risk in the next few days. Or it could become a triangle pattern which makes even shallower correction with more difficult technical situation as well as higher risk in the market. Either way, since the previous correction was deep and reached almost 78% of its previous bullish impulsive move, this new bearish corrective move (base on alternation guideline) cannot be deep and can end at around 38%. Best of luck.