Higher timeframe support. Take profit is the trendline.
Since 2015 the Nasdaq Index has undergone approximately 25% corrections from all-time-highs every 3 years. Over this time period, the price has more or less respected the trend lines shown above. But perhaps a force more powerful than the trendline is the timeline. The pattern repeats at roughly 39-month intervals from top to top: May '12 - July '15 (1175 days) pivot from 5/1/12 ATH, 12%* correction over 35 days July '15 - October '18 (1170 days) pivot from 7/20/15 ATH, 26% correction over 34 days October '18 - November '21 (1148 days) pivot from 10/1/18 ATH, 24% correction over 84 days November '21 - February '25 (1176 days) pivot from 11/22/21 ATH, 38%** correction over 324 days February '25 - May '28 pivot from 2/18/25 ATH, ??% correction If the pattern holds true, we were due a correction last week. My guess is we'll double-top December's ATH and then start the correction. How deep for how long is anyone's guess. Feels more like '21 insanity than '15 or '18 to me. Notes: *2012 (I believe) not yet representative of participation in the trendline pattern (still recovering from Great Recession) **This particular correction was covid-anomolous (we were 24% above the channel already when we pivoted). This particular -38%, 324-day correction was more like 3-in-1: -22% in 97 days, -27% in 80 days, -24% in 59 days. You may get a better pattern predictor if you average the 3 moves, so -24% over 77 days. Alternatively, you can see it as two moves: an intial -22% move to bring it back within the channel, followed by a second -24% move to bring it to the bottom of the channel.
1. Trend Breakdown: The price was in an uptrend, as shown by the black ascending trendline. A breakdown has occurred, with the price moving below this trendline. 2. Resistance & Rejection: The blue horizontal line represents a resistance zone around 1.05159. The price attempted to break above but got rejected. 3. Bearish Expectation: The red zone represents the stop-loss area, indicating a short (sell) trade setup. The green area is the target zone, suggesting the trader expects the price to drop toward 1.03801. The black arrow shows the anticipated downward movement. 4. Support Levels: The price is expected to test intermediate supports around 1.04658 and 1.04475 before reaching the final target. In summary, the trader expects EUR/USD to drop after failing to break resistance, following a breakdown from the trendline.
1. Short-Term Trader (Intraday to Multi-Day) A) Primary (Bias-Aligned) Setup • Rationale: Aligns with the broader uptrend and the ongoing range support near 38,900–39,000 on lower timeframes. Looks for a short-term rally if price reclaims local resistance. • Execution Parameters: • Entry Trigger: • Await a 1H candle close above ~39,300 (near local lower-high pivot). • Look for an uptick in volume or a bullish engulfing bar on the 1H chart confirming momentum. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Under 39,000, just below the bullish order block / recent intraday support. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~39,500 (immediate overhead supply). • TP2: ~39,700–39,800 (previous swing highs). • Risk Management: • Position size to risk 1–2% of trading capital, with an approximate 1:2 or 1:3 R:R ratio depending on final entry fill. B) Alternate (Contrary) Setup • Rationale: Activates if the support region (38,900–39,000) fails, flipping short-term bias to downside momentum. • Execution Parameters: • Alternate Entry Trigger: • Break and 1H close below 38,900, confirming invalidation of the bullish order block. • Any retest that fails to reclaim 39,000 becomes a secondary entry. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Just above 39,100 to cover a potential reclaim attempt. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~38,600 (recent minor support). • TP2: ~38,200 or deeper if intraday selling accelerates. • Risk Management: • Adjust position size for volatility around a breakdown; aim for a 1:2 R:R or better. 2. Swing Trader (Multi-Week) A) Primary (Bias-Aligned) Setup • Rationale: Builds on the daily chart’s bullish structure near 38k support, looking for a potential run toward the 40k–41k resistance region. • Execution Parameters: • Entry Trigger: • Daily close above ~39,500 with sustained volume, suggesting an attempt at the next resistance band (40k+). • Bullish crossover on daily MACD or RSI crossing above ~55 can reinforce the entry. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Beneath 38,500 on a daily closing basis, below the recent consolidation floor to allow for volatility. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~40,000–40,200 (major daily supply zone). • TP2: ~41,000 (upper band of daily range). • Risk Management: • Aim for a moderate position size, seeking a 1:2 or 1:3 R:R. Consider partial profit at TP1 and trailing stops thereafter. B) Alternate (Contrary) Setup • Rationale: Triggered if daily price closes convincingly under 38k support, negating the bullish mid-range bias and opening downside toward deeper weekly support. • Execution Parameters: • Alternate Entry Trigger: • Daily close below ~38,000, plus follow-through selling on the next session. • This invalidates the bullish structure, suggesting a larger correction could unfold. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Above 38,800 on a daily closing basis, covering a possible reclaim of the broken support. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~37,000 (prior daily pivot and potential institutional demand). • TP2: ~36,000 or lower if the weekly chart’s deeper support is tested. • Risk Management: • Use swing-sized position. Target a 1:2 R:R minimum, reducing or trailing stops near key fib or structural supports. 3. Macro Trader (Multi-Month to Longer-Term) A) Primary (Bias-Aligned) Setup • Rationale: Leverages the long-term uptrend visible on the weekly chart, anticipating that consolidation near ~38k–39k eventually resolves to the upside toward prior highs (~42k). • Execution Parameters: • Entry Trigger: • Weekly close above 40k, demonstrating a clear breakout from the consolidation range. • Confirmation via weekly momentum indicators turning bullish (e.g., weekly MACD crossing positive). • Stop-Loss Placement: • Under 36k on a weekly closing basis, below major prior structure and the 100/200-week MAs. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~42,000–43,000 (historic weekly resistance). • TP2: Potential extension beyond 45k if the bull trend accelerates. • Risk Management: • Lower leverage or a smaller position. Potentially add on retests of the breakout zone. Seek a 1:3 or better R:R over a longer horizon. B) Alternate (Contrary) Setup • Rationale: Engaged if price fails at the top of the range and breaks down significantly below the multi-year trendline or major weekly support. • Execution Parameters: • Alternate Entry Trigger: • Weekly close below 35,500–36,000, confirming the breakdown of the bullish structure from a macro standpoint. • Negative slope on weekly MAs or a strongly negative MACD cross might reinforce the short bias. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Above ~37,500 on a weekly closing basis, allowing some volatility above the broken support region. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~32,000–33,000 (major prior pivot / weekly volume node). • TP2: ~30,000 or lower if a full cyclical retrace unfolds. • Risk Management: • Employ conservative position sizing given the longer timescale. Aim for a balanced risk-reward approach, partial profit around TP1, and trailing stop for the remainder. Summary of the Dual-Scenario Approach • Primary Setups in each category lean bullish, reflecting the broader uptrend and stable support around 38k–39k. • Alternate (Contrary) Setups engage only if key supports break or resistance strongly rejects price, confirming a structural shift. This dual approach covers both sides of the market, ensuring readiness for continued consolidation/breakout to the upside or a sudden downside invalidation of the current range.
Maker has just turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 46.979, MACD = -66.220, ADX = 40.770) as it hit the bottom of the 1 year Channel Down and bounced. The 1D RSI shows that we are on a similar rebound as on the October 25th 2024 bottom but needs to be validated by a crossing above the 1D MA50. The two bullish waves before that have posted a price increase of +127.15%, so there is no reason to expect otherwise if the 1D MA50 is crossed. Be ready to go long (TP = 1,780). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
This chart shows how cycle lines can be used to estimate potential short term trade opportunities in the crypto market. The key is to identify what price action is doing in order to pick an strategy that works for your trading style. Instead of quantifying directional based biases, measure time, cycle lengths, price ranges, and more. Many traders know what the measured move is. However time can also be measured to provide an edge.
After the bulls are over, gold will also enter a volatile market, but please don't forget that the rise of gold is just a rebound and not a reversal. At present, the upper moving average dead cross has begun to touch the gold price, and the market trading volume will be much weaker, so gold will maintain a short-term fluctuation in this 2880-2905 range. If you want to operate, it is recommended to refer to the 2905 line and short at highs! On the whole, the short-term operation of gold suggests that the rebound is mainly short, and the callback is supplemented by long. The top short-term focus is on the 2903-2905 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term focus is on the 2876-2880 first-line support. Short position strategy: Strategy 1: Short 20% of the gold position in batches when it rebounds to around 2903-2905, stop loss 6 points, target around 2890-2875, break to see 2865 line; Long position strategy: Strategy 2: Long 20% of the gold position in batches when it pulls back to around 2876-2880, stop loss 6 points, target around 2890-2895, break to see 2900 line;
Zcash has been absolutely awesome lately and this chart tells us that the best is yet to come. Between July and December 2024 there is present on the chart a ~400% bullish wave. This is great. But, if prices were at the high of this wave it would feel uncomfortable to enter this market, to buy-in. Guess what? Good news! The flush earlier this month erased all gains from the previous bullish wave. This means that a new buy opportunity is present. We have great entry prices available for long-term gains. The long-term gains is the 2025 bull-market. Now, look at the chart. The early 2025 February flus produced a new All-Time Low. This is a buy opportunity. The wick low reversed at the same level as back in July 2024. This same level of the 2020 March flush. After the 2020 March flush, ZECUSDT grew by an astonishing 2,100%. This is what I mean. Now that the flush is over, we are approaching a major bullish wave. Even if some major exchanges remove this pair, this will do nothing to Zcash other than some temporary crash. Maybe. Cryptocurrency is unstoppable and set to forever now grow. Today, yesterday and tomorrow. Tomorrow now, forever more. Based on candle close we have higher highs and higher lows. Notice the blue lines on the chart. We are due a new All-Time High in 2025. Total growth potential from bottom to top can vary between 2,500% and 6,000%. I know, it is a wide range but the market is unpredictable when it comes to the exact top numbers, what can be predicted easily, is the upcoming bullish wave. The market will grow. Do you agree? If yes, make sure to follow. If no, continue reading and soon your idea will be the same. If you don't agree by next month, the numbers will change your mind. This is not speculation, I am telling you the future now, before it happens. Cryptocurrency will grow. The Altcoins will grow. Bitcoin is going up. This market force is unstoppable. We are going up. The new finance is going up. Thanks a lot for your continued support. Namaste.
As we can see NIFTY is forming more like a falling wedge pattern in bigger time frame which could result major change in trend when the break of structure is seen but we can see NIFTY has not fully formed falling wedge pattern and hence giving more room for fall so unless the structure is completely formed, every rise can be sold till confirmation is found so plan your trades accordingly and keep watching.
Historic all time low levels, breaking above and holding as support. 4:1 reward to risk. undeniable accumulation on the 4 hour as well