Gold (XAUUSD) Weekly Update: Gold has entered a correction phase after showing divergence. Based on Elliott Wave, Wave 3 has ended, and we're now in Wave 4. If 2800 holds, the main trend stays bullish, and after this correction, Wave 5 could push us towards $3000! ? Key Levels: Support: 2800 Resistance: 2862 – 2882 As long as price stays below the 2862-2882 range, the trend is bearish short-term. A break above could signal a bullish continuation. ? What’s your take on gold? Will we see $3000 soon? Drop your thoughts below! ? #XAUUSD #Gold #GoldAnalysis #XAU #TechnicalAnalysis #Trading #ElliottWave #Forex #Investing #GoldPrice
Quick summary of little write up below : 1) Probably should not start to get bearish unless bears can get price below November 2024 low , ideally a monthly close below 2) A full cash signal is a close below monthly 21 ema , at that point it's "possibly" a bear market and we should be in cash . 3) After we get get a cash signal , then we need to wait to have a high 2 close to redeploy capital for long risk on stuff ....and should probably long the market right at the following H2 close (when it happens) 4) I practice that myself and it is based on 127 year study of the same occurrences vs monthly. ================================================================================== Longer version and short ideas I have on my list . I have been hearing a lot of people are in cash right now and I like to look at the monthly chart , in fact I have tested the down jones back to 1897 on personal studies vs it's monthly and I think its a great way to gauge the market and even take slower less emotional trades . I have marked up the chart here and shown where we should be in cash for 2022 bear market as an example . I really don't think now is the time to be in cash like many are saying I think that we obviously need to manage risk and listen to market. BUT, with the exception of the bearish wick from three months ago and the fact that we do have a Low 2 monthly candle which is a weak af sell signal, the bears have not even been able to get us below the nov 2024 lows and that is my line in the sand to begin to potentially take some monthly shorts .... but for now those same shorts are probably longs . Some key points for me are a close below the monthly 21 ema ( lower one ) its a cash signal . That's a "monthly close" not the price momentarily going there . Then once that happens you can just wait for two higher than prior bars closes , which I call high 2's or H2 for short . This is a very simple way to keep you out when getting is not good or switch to shorts and the odd names that are still at highs and ignoring a bear ( hard to do but there's always a few ) . Ok so finally , should bears start to get price below NOV low here's a list of stuff that might work well . But want to add that right now we should be doing the opposite and focusing on reversal trades and strength . SHORT IDEA LIST (QQQ must at very least be under nov low to consider acting for me ) PLTR DUOL HIMS APP NVDA CYBR CAVA SFM TKO GOLD/GLD (crowded longs ) RDDT MSFT AMZN PYPL
Bearish scenario - selling at the top - using TA - Fib based projection suggests a danger zone possible top around 40k specifically 40,379 - Overlaying the 2008-10 bear price structure coincidences with BAGL (bottom ascending grind lines) trend lines which could act as support. - Assuming this is major bear, from the top 50% or 61.8% fib retracement is appropriate and looking where the fib touches the BAGLs tells you where the bottom is in time. It suggests Summer 2026 following historical precedent we know bear markets are fast 18 months to 2 years are typical for corrections and fits to the KLOS too - There are no bears left - Retail is on record levels of margin - the 18.6 housing cycle is about to roll over - Trump put on tariffs - There is trillions of debt that needs to be rolled over we are out of control - Carry trade unwind leads to 3-4 T that will have to be written off as bad loans guys will keep this in Cayman islands and retire - US debt is being bought up by Cayman island accounts - no money left - China and oil countries are not buying US treasuries - All world indices divided by Gold are in down trend, topped out previously so if Gold is real money then we are already in a world wide bear market - The advances and decliners lines have broken BAGLs just like they did in the start of the last bear markets - The Nifty fifty Indian market is leading us down so is Malaysia & Turkey - NVDA looks weak as 14% of Nasdaq is it a canary ? - The old drivers of the bull become the bear targets? - USDJPY at KLOS going back 20 yr chart could be the breakdown signal - Trump wants weaker dollar to make USA great again for manufacturing This is quick look - you need to calculate out the exact bottom with care and accuracy as time moves closer
My option about cadchf Is more bearish so that zone is good and strong restanice if the price comes to that zone it can pullback
Current Price: $241.84 Resistance Levels: 241.91, 259.81 (High) Support Levels: 230.48, 219.68, 207.42 Trendline: Holding for now, but if broken, price could drop significantly. Bullish Case Trendline Support Holding Price is still above the rising trendline, acting as strong support. RSI (~52.63): Neutral but recovering. Stochastic (~64.21): Turning up, suggesting potential upside momentum. AAPL is still above the key EMAs, which supports a bullish case. Volume Profile Shows Strong Demand Above 230 Buyers stepping in around $230-$238, preventing deeper pullbacks. Bullish Target Levels Break above 241 → Re-test 259.81 (All-time high) If 259.81 breaks → Next leg higher (~270-275 possible) Bearish Case Trendline Breakdown Could Trigger a Decline A break below $230.48 will confirm a bearish breakdown. RSI is not in strong bullish territory yet. Bearish Targets from Volume Profile If $230 breaks, price may move towards: $219.68 (First strong support) $207.42 (Next key level) $191.27 (Major demand zone) Bearish Target Levels Break below 230 → Move to 219 first Below 219 → Risk of deeper pullback to 207-200 range Final Outlook: Leaning Bullish if price breaks above $245 As long as $230 holds, AAPL remains bullish Break below $230. Then expect a move toward $219 and possibly lower. Strategy Bullish Above 245 → Target 250-259 Bearish Below 230 → Target 219,207, 195
What will nasdaq do? Truthfully I have no clue however based on technicals we have hit daily support. - On the 1h we have a gap that needs to be filled at level 20,712.2 which is where I’m planning on entering if I see smt .let’s keep it simple !! Also on the Vix we have reached resistance levels rejecting from 22.55 and possibly going to slap support if we get passed 17.50 to around 13.00 with that we should see very big pushes to the upside on Nasdaq . Last Friday was a pain however I got a good entry so I am looking to add to my position. Good luck
My option about GBPJPY Is more bearish so that zone is good and strong restanice if the price comes to that zone it can pullback
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