President Donald Trump’s tariffs have underscored the increasing geopolitical risk that almost all businesses now face. As the situation continues to shift with Trump’s unpredictable deal-making, it’s also becoming clear how challenging it is for companies, nonprofits, consultants, and lawyers to keep up with the rapid day-to-day changes. “We are drowning in trade updates every […]
The Chinese e-commerce marketplace app DHgate, which is now the No. 2 free iPhone app in the U.S., isn’t the only one that’s oddly benefiting from President Trump’s tariffs on U.S. imports from China. Another Chinese shopping app, Taobao, has now also entered the Top 5 as of Thursday. U.S. consumers began flocking to these […]
Geoff Ralston, known for his years at Y Combinator, has a new AI VC fund called SAIF. It is seeking AI startups focused on safety.
Hey Traders, Thought I would post up something a little different and possibly unique from what you are used to seeing on the ideas section. Basically I'm here to rubbish 90% of what you see on here. Why? you may ask.... Well almost every 'idea' you see on these pages is attempting to predict where price will go on a certain currency pair or commodity. Guess what? You cannot predict what will happen. Nobody can. If you really stop and think about it, how stupid do most of these ideas sound when you think of them as attempting the magic that is predicting the future? it's actually insane. I will run through some examples of ideas that attempt to predict the future (almost always unsuccessfully) 1. Channels, trendlines, Support and resistance - All nonsense, yet used by almost everyone (the 95% of losing traders funnily enough) The value of something does not care about random diagonal lines that Karen from Tradelikeme.com draws on her chart. They also don't care about highs and lows. Good wasn't supposed to go through $2000 recently, then $2500, then $3000. The sheer number of idiots selling at these levels is astronomical, yet gold didn't care and keeps on going. 2. Cosmic god like indicators such as Fibonacci and RSI. - Banks don't pause their buying or selling because a particular number sequence has been reached. They also don't care if you think it's overbought or oversold! 3. News events - Yes news events obviously do move the price. But you need to ask yourself why? How many times does some US news sound good for the dollar, yet the price goes sharply the other way? Banks are using these events to gain liquidity that they can whipsaw in the market and take out all your stops. They then have the money to go whichever way they want. Using news events to try and predict price will always end in ruin long term. I will try to post more positive information on how I trade and how I learnt these lessons to become a genuine full time trader.
Overall good session in terms of movement and "price clarity", however I was completely distracted. That is one of the worst things that can happen to one trading. This is what I mean when I say I perform bad: Not locked in & not excited. Man you know why you were distracted, f*ck that, cmon. At least for 45min a day.
I Am a Software Developer and a Passionate Trader Over the past five years, I have explored nearly every aspect of trading—technical analysis, intraday trading, MTF, pre-IPO investments, options selling, F&O, hedging, swing trading, long-term investing, and even commodities like gold and crude oil. Through this journey, I realized that **technical analysis is only about 20% of the equation**. The real game is **psychology and mindset**. I have distilled my learnings into concise points below—insights that have shaped my approach and will continue to guide me in my version 2.0 of trading. I hope they prove valuable to you as well. --- ### **Position Sizing** One of the most important aspects of trading is choosing the right position size. Your trade should never be so large that it causes stress or worry. Keep it at a level where you can stay calm, no matter how the market moves. ### **Set Stop-Loss and Target Before Placing a Trade** Decide in advance when you will exit a trade—both at a loss (**stop-loss**) and at a profit (**target**). This helps maintain emotional balance, preventing extreme excitement or frustration. ### **How to Calculate Position Size** - Use **technical analysis** to identify your **stop-loss** and **target**. - Example: If CMP is ₹100 and your stop-loss is at ₹94 (₹6 risk per share), determine your risk tolerance: - ₹3,000 risk ➝ **500 shares** (₹3,000 ÷ ₹6) - ₹1,200 risk ➝ **200 shares** (₹1,200 ÷ ₹6) - Adjust quantity based on how much you're willing to risk. ### **Setting Target Price & Risk-Reward Ratio** The most important factor in setting a target is the **risk-reward ratio**. If your stop-loss is ₹6, your target should be at least **₹6, ₹9, or ₹12**. ### **Why Is Risk-Reward Important?** Let’s say you take **10 trades**—5 go in your favor, and 5 go against you. If your risk-reward ratio isn’t favorable, you could end up in a loss. Example: - You **lose ₹6** in two trades → ₹12 total loss - You **gain ₹3** in three trades → ₹9 total profit - **Net result: -₹3 loss** To ensure profitability, your **reward should be equal to or greater than your risk**. A **1.5x or 2x risk-reward ratio** is ideal. ### **Flexibility in Targets** Even when the price reaches **Target 1**, you can **book partial profits** and let the rest run with a **trailing stop-loss**. --- ### **Managing Multiple Trades** This is **very important**. If you're a beginner, **limit yourself to 2 trades**, and even if you're a pro, **avoid more than 3-5 positions**. **Example:** If you have **₹2 lakh**, make sure you have **only 2 trades open at a time**. Add a third stock **only when you close another position**. --- ### **How to Deploy Capital** Patience is key. If you have **₹1 lakh**, **divide it into 4-5 parts** and buy **in small chunks over time**. **Why?** The **nature of stocks** is to move in waves—rising, facing profit booking, then breaking previous highs. Instead of investing everything at once, **buy in staggered amounts** to ensure your **average price stays close to CMP**. --- ### **Avoid Market Noise** When trading, **stay in your zone**. Social media posts can make you feel **slow compared to others**, but they don't show the full picture. Avoid distractions like: - Direct stock tips from **news channels** - P&L snapshots from traders - Following too many **analysts on social media** Instead, **listen to expert views**, but stay disciplined with **your own strategy**. --- ### **Stock Selection** Stock selection has **two elements—technical and fundamental** (I'll write a separate post on this). Always **buy a stock that you can hold even in your darkest times**. **Example:** - Choose **blue-chip stocks** with **high market caps & strong promoter holdings** - Never **buy a stock just because it’s in momentum** - If a stock **turns into a forced SIP**, it’s not a good buy Pick stocks with **a long-term story**—even if you fail to exit at the right time, you should be comfortable holding them. --- ### **Accept That It’s the Market, Not You** Many traders fail because they **don’t admit that the market is unpredictable**. Losses happen because of volatility, not necessarily poor strategy. **Example:** - You lose a trade and **try improving your method** but face another hit - Some losses **are simply beyond your control** Most of what happens in the market is **not in your hands**—including stop-loss triggers. **Accept this reality,** and focus on **risk management** instead of revenge trading. --- ### **Keep Separate Trading & Investment Accounts** Trading and investing **are different**. If you keep them **in the same account**, you’ll: - **Book small profits** on investments - **Hold short-term trades in losses** Having **separate accounts** keeps **your goals clear**. --- ### **Don’t Let the Market Dominate You** Even full-time traders **shouldn’t obsess over the market**. Limit your **screen time to 2-3 hours during market hours**. **Why?** - You can’t **act on global markets until 9:15 AM IST** - Even if a **war or tariff issue** arises, **you can’t do anything until market open** - Overthinking leads to **over-trading**, which drains money Instead, **invest time in developing new skills**. --- ### **Do What Suits You, Not Others** If you're good at **swings, stick to swings**. If you're good at **intraday, do intraday**. Don't follow **what works for a friend—trade based on what suits you**. --- ### **Avoid FOMO** Don't **stress** if a stock jumps **20% in a day**. Stock **accumulation zones, demand/supply areas, profit booking**, and **retests** happen **regularly**—opportunities will always come. Even traders who claim they made **20% in a day** **don’t share how often they got trapped chasing stocks**. --- ### **Stop-Loss Is Your Best Friend** No, stop-loss is your **best friend for life**. **Example:** - Suppose you **enter 10 trades in a month**. - **6 do well** and you book profits. - **4 go against you**, but instead of exiting, **you hold** because you believe they’ll recover. - Next month, you **repeat this cycle**—adding more positions. Over time, **this builds a portfolio of lagging stocks**, and suddenly, **your losses dominate your portfolio**. --- Even Experts Face Losses Even professionals with **advanced research teams lose money**. Retail traders often **believe they can avoid losses by analyzing a few ratios**, but **losses are part of trading**. A stop-loss ensures **you stay in the game long-term**—instead of holding onto losing trades indefinitely. --- Take a Break & Restart Taking breaks is **crucial**. If everything is going wrong, **don’t hesitate to press the reset button**—step back, analyze, and refine your approach. A fresh mindset leads to better trading decisions. (I’ll write a detailed post on this soon.)
Hello friends Due to the change in structure and the entry of buyers and the breakdown of the downtrend, we can buy in steps within the specified ranges and move with it to the specified targets, of course with capital and risk management... *Trade safely with us*
In this video, we will be looking into the potential price action of ES1!.
Analyzing the Multifaceted Risk of a Deflationary Bust in the 21st Century United States Scene setting; =============================================================================== Shifting Focus from Inflation to a Latent Deflationary Threat =============================================================================== For decades, the dominant macroeconomic preoccupation in the United States, reflected in policy debates and market anxieties, has centered on managing inflation. The specter of rising prices eroding purchasing power has been the primary dragon for central bankers and governments to slay. However, lurking beneath these immediate concerns are powerful, long-term structural forces that converge to present a different, arguably more insidious, potential threat: a deflationary bust. Deflation, a sustained decrease in the general price level, can morph from seemingly benign cheaper goods ("good deflation") into a destructive economic vortex ("bad deflation") characterized by falling demand, contracting output, rising unemployment, crippling debt burdens, and financial instability. This essay looks into the confluence of factors; technological disruption demographic shifts unprecedented debt levels – These create a credible vulnerability to such a scenario in the US over the coming decades. It will further explore how policy choices, global trade dynamics, and speculative market behavior could act as amplifiers or triggers, transforming latent risk into acute crisis. While not predicting an inevitable outcome, this analysis aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the multifaceted nature of this significant long-term economic challenge. =============================================================================== Technological Double-Edged Sword: AI, Automation, and the Price Level =============================================================================== Technological advancement, particularly the accelerating capabilities of Artificial Intelligence, robotics, and digitalization, stands as perhaps the most potent and complex force influencing future price levels. Its impact is fundamentally dual-natured: -- The Promise of "Good Deflation" : Efficiency and Abundance: Technology inherently drives efficiency. AI can optimize supply chains, automate manufacturing processes, reduce energy consumption, and streamline service delivery, leading to lower production costs. These savings can translate into lower prices for consumers, boosting real incomes and living standards – a beneficial form of deflation. Furthermore, in the digital realm, AI pushes towards zero marginal cost production for information goods. The ability to generate personalized software, entertainment (films, music, games), designs, or sophisticated analysis on demand at negligible incremental cost represents a powerful deflationary force in these sectors, potentially leading to an unprecedented abundance of certain goods and services. -- The Peril of Disruption and Demand Destruction : The same technologies that promise efficiency also threaten widespread labor displacement. If automation eliminates jobs across various sectors (from manufacturing and logistics to white-collar professions like coding, design, and even legal analysis) faster than the economy can create new roles or adapt wage structures, the result could be significant unemployment or wage stagnation for large segments of the population. This directly undermines aggregate demand. Even if goods become cheaper, falling or insecure incomes prevent consumers from purchasing them, nullifying the benefits of lower prices. This risk is amplified by the "productivity paradox" – if AI adoption leads to job losses without simultaneously generating the massive, broad-based productivity gains needed to boost overall wealth and create new demand, the net effect could be strongly deflationary. The destruction of incomes in industries disrupted by zero-marginal-cost AI could further exacerbate this, crippling the vital income-spending-income cycle necessary for economic vitality. Uncertainty about future employment prospects can also trigger increased precautionary savings (hoarding), slowing the velocity of money and adding further deflationary pressure. =============================================================================== The Demographic Drag: An Aging Population and Shifting Consumption =============================================================================== Compounding the technological shifts are profound demographic changes underway in the United States. While not as advanced as in Japan or parts of Europe, the US population structure is undergoing significant transformation: The Aging Baby Boomer Cohort : The retirement of this large generation is leading to slower labor force growth and a higher dependency ratio (more retirees relative to workers). Shifting Consumption Patterns : Older populations typically exhibit different consumption behaviors. They tend to save a higher proportion of their income and spend less, particularly on durable goods, vehicles, and housing expansion, compared to younger, family-forming households. Their spending priorities often shift towards healthcare and services. Impact on Aggregate Demand : This demographic evolution acts as a persistent, gradual drag on overall consumer demand, which has historically been the primary engine of US economic growth. Reduced demand for goods and services exerts a gentle but constant downward pressure on prices and growth potential. While immigration can partially offset these trends, the underlying shift towards an older population profile contributes to a macroeconomic environment more susceptible to deflationary forces. It represents a structural headwind that makes the economy less resilient to negative shocks. ======================================================================== The Mountain of Debt: Vulnerability and the Debt-Deflation Spiral ======================================================================== Perhaps the most acute vulnerability amplifying the risk of a deflationary bust is the staggering level of debt accumulated across the US economy – encompassing government, corporate, and household sectors. Decades of low interest rates, financial innovation, and fiscal deficits have resulted in debt-to-GDP ratios hovering near historic highs. Scale and Scope : From towering federal deficits to increased corporate borrowing (often used for share buybacks rather than productive investment) and significant household mortgage and consumer debt, the US economy operates with substantial leverage. The Debt-Deflation Mechanism : As articulated by Irving Fisher, debt becomes exceptionally dangerous during deflation. When the general price level falls, the real burden of existing, nominally fixed debt increases. A dollar owed becomes harder to earn back when wages and prices are declining. This forces debtors (households, corporations, potentially even governments) into distress: -- Forced Deleveraging : Debtors must cut spending drastically to service or pay down debt. Businesses slash investment and payrolls; households cut consumption. -- Asset Fire Sales : To raise cash, debtors may be forced to sell assets (homes, stocks), further depressing asset prices and exacerbating the downturn. -- Demand Collapse : The combined effect of spending cuts and asset deflation crushes aggregate demand. -- Feedback Loop : Falling demand leads to further price declines, which further increases the real debt burden, triggering more defaults and spending cuts – a vicious downward spiral. Heightened Fragility : The sheer scale of existing debt means the US economy is acutely sensitive to this dynamic. Even a mild deflationary impulse could potentially trigger significant financial distress and initiate this destructive feedback loop, turning a manageable slowdown into a severe bust. =============================================================================== Amplifiers and Triggers: Igniting the Latent Risk =============================================================================== While the underlying forces create vulnerability, specific events or policy choices often act as catalysts, turning potential risk into reality. Several potential amplifiers and triggers exist in the current context: -- Policy Missteps : Abrupt or misjudged policy actions could destabilize the system. -- Monetary Policy Shock : An overly aggressive tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve, perhaps reacting belatedly to persistent inflation, could dramatically raise borrowing costs, crush asset values held by indebted entities, and freeze credit markets, potentially triggering a deflationary collapse despite the initial inflationary trigger. -- Sudden Fiscal Austerity : A sharp, unexpected shift to fiscal consolidation (deep spending cuts, large tax hikes), potentially driven by political gridlock or a sudden panic over debt levels, could withdraw critical demand from the economy, tipping it into deflation. -- Disruptive Regulation : Hasty or poorly designed regulations targeting key sectors (e.g., finance, technology) could inadvertently curtail credit, destroy perceived wealth, or halt investment. -- Loss of Credibility : A rapid erosion of market confidence in US fiscal sustainability or the Federal Reserve's competence could lead to soaring interest rates (market-driven), capital flight, and financial chaos, potentially triggering a bust. Trade Wars and Deglobalization: Beyond specific tariffs (which can be inflationary for targeted goods), the broader trend of escalating trade friction and deglobalization acts primarily as a deflationary force on the overall economy. It reduces global efficiency, disrupts supply chains, dampens business investment due to uncertainty, and slows global growth, thereby weakening the capacity of economies worldwide to service debt and maintain demand. Speculative Unwinding and Retail Exposure: The significant increase in retail investor participation, often concentrated in highly speculative assets like meme stocks and cryptocurrencies, creates a specific vulnerability. A sharp, correlated downturn in these markets would trigger: -- Negative Wealth Effect : Millions feeling suddenly poorer would drastically cut discretionary spending. -- Confidence Collapse : Shattered confidence would lead to increased hoarding (precautionary savings) and delayed purchases. -- Direct Liquidity Shock : Forced selling and realized losses would directly reduce spending power. This mechanism provides a direct channel from financial market volatility to a sharp contraction in real economic activity, amplifying deflationary pressures. ======================================================================== Interactive Effects and the Downward Spiral ======================================================================== Crucially, these factors do not operate in isolation; their danger lies in their potential interaction and ability to create self-reinforcing negative feedback loops. Synergistic Weakness: Imagine technology displacing workers (reducing income) while an aging population inherently dampens demand, all within an economy saturated with debt. This combination is exceptionally fragile. Cascading Failures: A shock in one area (e.g., a tech stock collapse) can trigger deleveraging that worsens the debt problem, which then further reduces demand, validating initial pessimism and potentially leading to further price drops and layoffs. The Power of Expectations: Once businesses and consumers expect prices to fall, deflation can become entrenched. Businesses delay investment, and consumers postpone purchases, waiting for lower prices, thereby validating the expectation and deepening the slump. Breaking these expectations becomes incredibly difficult for policymakers. =============================================================================== Countervailing Forces =============================================================================== Despite these significant risks, a deflationary bust is not preordained. Several factors could counteract these trends or mitigate their impact: US Economic Dynamism: The US economy possesses inherent strengths, including a culture of innovation, relatively flexible labor markets (compared to some peers), and a deep pool of capital. Inflationary Pressures: Persistent inflationary forces may counteract deflationary drivers. These include the costs associated with reshoring supply chains (deglobalization), massive investments required for the green energy transition, geopolitical instability impacting commodity prices, and potentially persistent labor bargaining power in certain sectors. Policy Responses: Governments and central banks are aware of deflation risks (particularly informed by Japan's experience). They possess tools like quantitative easing, negative interest rates (though controversial), forward guidance, and substantial fiscal stimulus (like direct payments or infrastructure spending) to combat deflationary pressures. Novel policies like Universal Basic Income (UBI) might even be considered in a future of AI-driven job displacement. The effectiveness and potential unintended consequences (e.g., fueling asset bubbles, future inflation risk) of these tools, especially near the zero lower bound, remain subjects of debate. =============================================================================== Vigilance in the Face of Structural Change =============================================================================== The risk of a deflationary bust in the United States over the coming decades is a credible, complex threat arising from the confluence of powerful structural forces. Transformative technology offers efficiency but risks income destruction; demographic shifts promise longer lives but dampen demand; accumulated debt fuels growth in the short term but creates profound fragility in the face of falling prices. These underlying vulnerabilities can be ignited by policy errors, geopolitical turmoil, or the unwinding of speculative excesses in financial markets, potentially trapping the economy in a debilitating downward spiral. While countervailing forces exist and policy tools are available, their efficacy in navigating such an unprecedented confluence of challenges remains uncertain. Addressing this latent risk requires more than traditional macroeconomic management. It demands forward-looking policies that foster inclusive growth, manage the societal transitions accompanying technological change, ensure long-term fiscal sustainability without triggering austerity shocks, promote financial stability that accounts for new forms of speculation, and maintain adaptability in the face of profound global shifts. Recognizing and proactively addressing the gathering chill of potential deflation is essential for securing long-term economic prosperity and stability in the 21st century.
Analysis of Key Influencing Factors Risk-averse sentiment supports The escalation of Sino-US trade frictions and concerns about global economic recession continue to stimulate risk-averse demand, and gold remains attractive as a safe-haven asset. If the geopolitical or trade situation deteriorates further, gold prices may hit new highs. Fed policy expectations Despite strong US retail data and Powell's "no rate cut for the time being" signal, the market is still betting on a possible rate cut in June (CME FedWatch tool shows a probability of about 50%), and the dollar's upside is limited, which supports gold. Technical overbought and divergence The daily and H4 cycles show a top divergence signal, and there is a need for a correction in the short term. The historical high of 3357 may form a period of pressure. The Good Friday holiday on Friday may lead to some longs taking profits, and we need to be wary of fluctuations caused by insufficient liquidity. Technical points and operation strategies Key support and resistance Upper resistance: 3315-3325 (short-term pressure zone), 3357 (historical high) Lower support: 3280-3270 (first target of callback), 3230-3200 (strong support zone) Operation ideas Short-term callback long opportunities If it stabilizes in the 3280-3270 area (0.5 Fibonacci retracement level + previous low support), you can lightly position long orders, stop loss below 3250, and target 3310-3320. Steady strategy: wait for the price to break through 3325 and then confirm the callback before following up with long orders, with a target of 3350. High-level short-selling opportunities If it rebounds to the 3315-3325 area under pressure and there are stagflation signals (such as long upper shadows, hourly MACD dead cross), you can try short orders, stop loss above 3335, and target 3280-3270. Aggressive strategy: If it falls below 3270 directly, you can chase the short position to 3230, but you need to enter and exit quickly. Breakout follow-up strategy Break above 3357: Wait for a pullback to 3340 to go long, with a target of 3380-3400. Breaking below 3270: Pay attention to the support of 3230. If it stabilizes, you can backhand long orders; if it continues to fall below, the trend will turn bearish. Risk warning Liquidity risk: After the market closed on Friday, there may be a gap on Monday, so you need to be cautious in holding positions. Data and events: Next week, focus on US GDP, PCE inflation data and speeches by Fed officials. If the economic data is stronger than expected, it may strengthen the expectation of "delaying interest rate cuts", which is bearish for gold. Divergence correction: The technical top divergence may trigger a rapid correction, and strict stop loss is required to avoid carrying orders. Summary Next week, gold is likely to show a trend of high-level fluctuations-correction-and then choose the direction. The main idea is to go long at a low level after the correction, but be wary of technical correction risks. Short-term traders need to flexibly switch between long and short positions, while medium and long-term investors can wait for a pullback to the 3230-3200 area to place long orders. It is recommended to control the position within 5% and set a stop loss protection.