1. Market Structure & Technical Pattern: The Japanese Yen (JPY) against the U.S. Dollar (USD) has been exhibiting a clear Rising Wedge Pattern over the past few months. This is a classic bearish reversal pattern, indicating that buying momentum is gradually weakening, and a strong decline is likely to follow. Formation of the Rising Wedge: The price has been making higher highs and higher lows, confined within two converging trendlines (black lines). The lower boundary (support trendline) has been consistently acting as a dynamic support level. The upper boundary (resistance trendline) has been limiting further upward movement, indicating exhaustion of buying pressure. Breakout Confirmation: The price action tested the resistance zone multiple times but failed to sustain bullish momentum. A strong rejection from the upper resistance level led to a sharp sell-off, causing a breakdown of the support trendline. Once the price broke below the wedge, selling pressure intensified, confirming the trend reversal. 2. Key Technical Levels & Zones: Resistance Level (0.006895): The price previously struggled to break above this resistance zone, forming a strong supply area where sellers dominated. This level aligns with the upper boundary of the rising wedge, making it a significant turning point. The rejection from this zone initiated the bearish breakdown. Support Level (Broken – 0.006650): This level acted as a strong demand zone, preventing further downside movement during the wedge formation. However, once the price broke below this level, it confirmed the end of the uptrend and the beginning of a downtrend. This level may now act as a new resistance (role reversal principle). Stop Loss Placement (Above 0.006895): A logical stop-loss is placed just above the resistance level to protect against a potential invalidation of the bearish setup. If the price closes above this level, the bearish thesis would be invalidated. 3. Trading Execution & Risk Management: Sell Entry Strategy: Traders looking for short positions should enter after a confirmed break below the wedge’s support. A potential pullback (retest) to the broken trendline could offer an additional shorting opportunity. The retest would confirm the previous support turning into resistance before a continuation of the downtrend. Take Profit Targets (TP1 & TP2): TP1 (0.006481): This level represents a strong demand zone where short-term buyers may step in. Traders may choose to book partial profits here. TP2 (0.006251): This is a deeper support level and the final target for this trade setup. If the price sustains bearish momentum, it is likely to reach this level before stabilizing. Risk-to-Reward Ratio Consideration: This setup offers a high probability short trade with an attractive risk-to-reward ratio. The stop-loss is well-defined, minimizing potential losses while maximizing profit potential. 4. Expected Price Movement & Projection: Short-term Outlook: A possible pullback to the broken wedge (previous support now acting as resistance) before continuation lower. If the price retests and rejects the 0.006650 level, expect acceleration in the downtrend. Medium-term Outlook: If the price reaches TP1 (0.006481) and breaks below, it increases the probability of hitting TP2 (0.006251). A bearish trend continuation could form, potentially leading to further downside levels. Invalidation Scenario: If the price closes above the stop-loss level (0.006895), the bearish setup is invalidated, and a bullish breakout could follow instead. 5. Conclusion & Trading Plan: The rising wedge breakdown signals a shift from bullish to bearish market sentiment. Traders should look for short entries after a confirmed breakdown or wait for a pullback before executing trades. The risk-to-reward ratio makes this a strong high-probability trade setup. Following the plan with strict stop-loss placement ensures risk is controlled while maximizing profit potential. 6. Summary & Key Takeaways: ✅ Pattern: Rising Wedge (Bearish Reversal) ✅ Breakout Direction: Downside ✅ Resistance Level: 0.006895 ✅ Support Levels: 0.006650 (broken), 0.006481 (TP1), 0.006251 (TP2) ✅ Stop-Loss Placement: Above 0.006895 ✅ Profit Targets: TP1 – 0.006481, TP2 – 0.006251 ✅ Trade Bias: Bearish
fet has been moving inside a downward flag, I believe it will break the upper trend line and move towards 0.515, rejection from the upper trend line will send it back towards 0.4
TRADE WAR WARNING – IS THE GLOBAL “BIG SHORT” ON ITS WAY? In the last 24 hours, global financial markets were rattled after Donald Trump unveiled a sweeping set of new global tariffs. This wasn’t just a political move — it may well mark the beginning of a new wave of global economic instability. Markets across the board took a hit: ? US, European, and Asian equities ? Gold (XAU/USD), the US Dollar Index (DXY), and even crypto — all plunged into the red. ? So, What Actually Happened? Gold dropped by over 100 points in a single session — and strangely, the US dollar also fell. Normally, a weaker USD would support gold. So why did gold sell off this time? ➡️ One likely explanation is that institutional investors sold gold positions to cover losses in equity markets, or to free up margin amidst the chaos. ? This wasn’t just a correction — it might be the early signal of a global BIG SHORT forming across multiple asset classes. ? The Start of Something Bigger? Markets aren’t just reacting to tariffs. They’re pricing in the risk of a full-scale trade war, which could disrupt global supply chains and hammer corporate earnings. Industries like construction, healthcare, logistics, and manufacturing are already showing signs of strain. If this escalates, we could be looking at something far more serious than a short-term sell-off. ? The Data Doesn’t Look Great Either While inflation in the US continues to cool, other key data points are deteriorating: ISM Services PMI (March): 50.8 (vs 53.0 expected) Employment sub-index: 46.2 (down sharply from 53.9) New orders, export orders and backlogs also fell ? These are real signs of economic slowdown, especially considering that services make up over 70% of the US economy. ? Market Sentiment: FOMO, Fear, and Panic At the moment, it’s hard to ignore how unsettled sentiment has become. Retail and institutional traders alike are acting on fear. And that’s dangerous. ? Tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report could either calm things down — or add more fuel to the fire. ? Will the Fed Cut Rates Sooner? Markets are rapidly shifting their expectations: A rate cut could come as early as May or June 2025 Traders are now pricing in 2 to 4 cuts this year (previously just 2) There’s now a strong chance the Fed pivots earlier than expected If jobs data continues to soften, the Fed may have no choice but to act faster — despite core inflation not yet fully under control. ⚠️ Trading Strategy: Observation Over Action Right now, your best position might be… no position. "Sometimes, the most profitable trade is the one you don’t take." This isn’t the time to chase wild price action. It’s the time to prepare and plan with logic — not emotion. ? Key Technical Levels on XAU/USD ? Resistance: 3110 – 3119 – 3136 – 3148 – 3167 ? Support: 3086 – 3075 – 3055 – 3040 – 3024 ? BUY ZONE: 3056 – 3054 SL: 3050 TP: 3060 – 3064 – 3068 – 3072 – 3076 – 3080 ? SELL ZONE: 3148 – 3150 SL: 3154 TP: 3144 – 3140 – 3136 – 3132 – 3128 – 3124 – 3120 ? Final Thoughts The combination of tariffs, recession fears, and rate cut speculation is building into what could become a perfect storm. Gold is in the eye of that storm. Now is not the time to panic — but to trade with clarity and control. ? Don’t let emotion drive your trades. Stick to the chart. Stick to your plan. Protect your capital. ? Patience is what separates the lucky from the consistently profitable.
In this video we chat about an array of topics If you would like to see how to open a trade for the Leap Competition, learn how I know where price is going to next and get some advice on Risk:Reward Ratios...this video blah blah blah ;)
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE are the black boxes. As you can see, consolidation forms the left shoulder, and the breakout of the support forms the inverted head; now, the market has broken back into the zone. Wait for the retest, and Take Profit will be at the resistance.
MANA - Observation: Will History Repeat Itself? Analyzing the weekly chart of MANA, we can see that the price has reacted sharply around key levels. Since December 2022, MANA has been moving within a broad trading range, fluctuating between 0.2200 and 0.8200. Looking at past price movements, MANA rose from 0.2800 in December 2022. When tested again in October 2023, it dipped slightly below this zone before rebounding strongly. A similar pattern emerged in August 2024, where the price dropped just below the October 2023 level, then surged back up to test the upper boundary near 0.8200. Given this repeating behavior, the chart suggests that the price may follow a similar pattern this time. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
XAUMO Full Execution Report — April 4, 2025 ⸻ 1. DAILY OUTLOOK (April 4, 2025) Timeframe: Daily • Trend: Strong rejection from previous high at 3,167.88, with bearish control into NY close. • POC (FRVP daily): 3,093.85 — Magnet level. Price will respect this; eyes on retest or breakdown. • VAL: 3,068.55 — Support. Below here? Liquidity trap expected. MM will sweep this if bears continue. • VAH: 3,117.84 — Resistance zone. Above this = breakout play. • VWAP (Daily): 3,114.48, • VWAP Low: 3,068.55, • VWAP High: 3,134.42 Bias: Short Bias while below VWAP. Retracements into 3,100–3,114 = short zones unless bulls reclaim with volume. VSA Footprint: • High volume at previous push-up (April 2–3) now turned resistance supply zone. • Volume drop as price approached VAL, indicating potential spring/fakeout. ⸻ 2. 4-HOUR OUTLOOK (H4) • Trend: Sharp swing high rejection, forming descending structure. • VWAP (H4): 3,107.09 • POC (H4 FRVP): 3,085.19 • VAL: 3,066.36, • VAH: 3,112.90 Market Maker Logic: Currently operating a liquidity grab below VAL at 3,066 — then bounce to trap late sellers. Scenario Setup: • Break below 3,066: Trap & reverse play to 3,085 POC. • Push to 3,107–3,112 (VAH): Watch for shooting star or exhaustion — prime for reversal short. ⸻ 3. 1-HOUR OUTLOOK (H1) • POC (H1): 3,080.12 • VAL: 3,075.77, • VAH: 3,104.02 • VWAP: 3,100.72 Structure: • Price is consolidating just under VWAP = building fuel. • Volume divergence seen = weakness in bulls above VWAP. Setup: • Retest of VWAP → rejection = short scalp. • Price holds 3,075 → buys into VWAP → TP = POC/VWAP ⸻ 4. 15-MIN OUTLOOK (Scalping Zone) VWAP: 3,080.17 VAL: 3,078.98, VAH: 3,095.03 POC: 3,087.00 Scalp Zone Plan: • Price near VWAP/POC = No trade. • Drop to VAL (3,078) → bounce = scalp long to POC/VWAP • Pump to VAH (3,095) → rejection = scalp short back to POC VSA Confirmed: • Absorption seen at 3,085–3,088 • Footprint shows selling imbalance at 3,093+ ⸻ 5. SESSION BREAKDOWN Tokyo Session (2 AM - 8 AM Cairo) Expect low volatility fakeouts • Scenario 1: Early drop to sweep 3,075 liquidity zone (VAL). Look for spring reversal long. • Scenario 2: Push to 3,085-3,088 = MM trap zone → scalp short. Trade Setup: • Buy Limit @ 3,076.50 • SL: 3,068.00 • TP1: 3,085.50 • TP2: 3,093.00 • Confidence: 78% • Justification: VAL sweep + POC magnet + Low Volume Node at 3,076. ⸻ London Session (10 AM - 2 PM Cairo) Volatility rise. Key move zone. • Scenario 1: Price pumps above VWAP to 3,095 → stalls → trap long → reversal short. • Scenario 2: MM drives price down to fill bids at 3,070 zone → double bottom → rally to VWAP. Trade Setup: • Sell Limit @ 3,094.50 • SL: 3,101.00 • TP1: 3,085.00 • TP2: 3,075.00 • Confidence: 82% • Justification: VAH + exhaustion volume + bearish divergence on RSI/MACD. ⸻ NYC Pre-Market (2 PM - 3:30 PM Cairo) MM trap time. Avoid overtrading. • MM may fake breakout above VAH (3,104–3,109) before flush down. Scenario: • Watch for false breakout above VWAP/VPOC then drop into VAL. Scalp Plan: • Short wick rejections on 5-min around 3,104 • TSL over every lower high. ⸻ NYC Main Session (3:30 PM - 10 PM Cairo) True move starts here. MM goes for blood. Scenario 1: • Break and close below VAL (3,066) on high volume = bearish continuation • TP: 3,054 → 3,040 (Fib extensions) Scenario 2: • Price bounces from VAL/VWAP low = massive spring. • TP: 3,093 → 3,117 → 3,132 Trade Setup (Breakout Strategy): • Sell Stop @ 3,065.50 • SL: 3,075.00 • TP1: 3,054.00 • TP2: 3,040.00 • Confidence: 85% • Justification: Confirmed VSA imbalance + LVN void + VAL breakdown. ⸻ 6. Scalping, Reversal, Trend Continuation, Breakout Scenarios (Sequential) Strategy Type Entry SL TP Timeframe Reason Scalp Long 3,076.50 3,068 3,093 15m VAL sweep Scalp Short 3,094.50 3,101 3,075 15m VAH rejection Trend Continuation Break below 3,065.50 3,075 3,054 → 3,040 H1/H4 VAL collapse Breakout Buy Break + Retest above 3,117 3,107 3,132 → 3,144 1H/4H VAH reclaim + volume surge ⸻ Summary Execution Order Suggestion Hypothetical Order (Best Setup of the Day): • Order Type: Sell Limit • Entry: 3,094.50 • Stop Loss: 3,101.00 • Take Profit: 3,085.00 → 3,075.00 • Confidence: 82% • Justification: VAH rejection + VWAP confluence + bearish footprint + liquidity trap above POC. This is MM’s “kill zone” setup. ⸻ That’s your surgical institutional-level strike plan. You now move like a market maker, not a retail pawn. Execute it clean. Control risk. Ride the levels.
Hello Traders ? This is a short and quick emergency update for ETH, because I personally think that we are about to see a massive reversal in the market, especially in the Altcoin section: 1_ Falling wedge: ETH is inside a falling wedge pattern just like BTC. They have the same pattern and also we have clear signs of bottoming out for both of them. 2_ Bullish divergence on the Daily chart: If you pay close attention to the RSI, you can see that we have a massive bullish divergence and this means breakout is so imminent for ETH, and this is going to be to the upside rather than downside, because honestly we are about 60% down from the ATH price — which in my opinion is enough correction for bulls to come back and take control. 3_ BTC.D is about to top out: If you saw my last idea about it, you know that we have a very huge bullish divergence — not on the daily, not even on the weekly! We have it on the monthly chart!!! That's f..king enough to be extremely bearish on BTC.D and be over bullish on ETH and Alts as well. 4_ ETH/BTC is very close to the monthly support and demand area: I will publish a complete idea about it because this is beyond the current idea and I have to explain it in detail. Oh right guys, I hope you make the right decision — and also always remember: ? Discipline is rarely enjoyable, But almost always profitable ? ? KIU_COIN ?
After a few months of waiting on the sidelines we are back with a chainlink long after a deep retrace. Link is showing bullish divergence on the lower timeframes after double bottoming at this crucial support and completing an 886 retracement of an informal Gartley. The support level can be seen across time below. The only question would be to either wait until the end of the day for this support candle to print or to go in now before confirmation. We will go in with 50% of our ideal position size now and then allocate at the end of the day or tomorrow. https://www.tradingview.com/x/2StNIKHq/
Add : Shorted on the 5 Minutes Time Frame, but time frame too small to publish on tradingview, so, I posted on the 15 Minutes Time Frame instead. 1648SGT 04042025 --- Trump Tariff caused USD to get dumped yesterday. US stocks also got dumped for 6 to 7 weeks consecutively. If you look at the Daily time frame you would see the big red candle on USDJPY's dump. I was looking at opportunities on all JPY pairs, and I took a liking to USDJPY because I am expecting USD to continue to get dumped. Shorting the resistance level. If you look at price on the 1H or 4H time frame, you would realise price is in a consolidation towards the down side, and I like that. NFP and unemployment rate news coming out later in the day. in about 4 hours time. Current time is 1647SGT. Might exit before the news got released. 1647SGT 04042025