The chart for DRV (Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares) illustrates the significant volatility and performance trends from 2015 to 2024. DRV primarily shows negative returns in the first quarter, especially in January, with large declines in 2015, 2021, and 2022. February and March often show mixed results, with some years like 2018 and 2020 displaying strong positive returns. April and May generally perform better, but DRV faces significant losses in mid-year months, particularly in June and July, which show notable declines in several years, especially during periods of macroeconomic instability. August and September demonstrate stronger returns, with DRV benefiting from broader market pullbacks during these months. October is usually volatile but shows occasional positive performance, as seen in 2021 and 2022. November and December are more favorable for DRV, with several years of positive returns, particularly in 2020, 2021, and 2023. The DRV ETF is designed to profit from declines in the real estate sector, and its performance is closely linked to macroeconomic conditions that affect the real estate market, including the broader economic outlook and interest rate policies. A key factor currently influencing the real estate market is the Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) crisis. Many banks are holding a large volume of these securities, which have lost significant value, particularly due to rising delinquency rates in office and retail spaces. The decline in the value of these securities could lead to substantial impairments on banks' balance sheets, especially for those with significant exposure to CMBS. As the CMBS issue unfolds, DRV could become a useful tool for profiting from the potential collapse of the real estate market. As banks are forced to write down the value of their CMBS holdings and adjust their capital ratios, the real estate sector could experience increased volatility, which would benefit DRV. In addition, the high volatility in DRV could be exacerbated if CMBS delinquencies increase, particularly in office and retail properties, leading to more widespread financial instability. Investors looking to hedge against the risks in commercial real estate could find DRV an effective vehicle to capitalize on potential declines in the market. DRV's sensitivity to real estate sector downturns makes it a valuable tool for investors tracking the risks associated with CMBS exposure, especially as the market begins to absorb the impact of increasing delinquencies and potential bankruptcies.
BTC is still bullish, meanwhile, correction is still developing, expected to terminate around FWB:88K zone.
Hey traders, 1) BTC been ranging Between $90,000 to $108,000 range from last 51 days almost. 2) BTC Might break $90,000 strong support which is most likely to happen before 20 January. 3) BTC can be seen around $80,000 to $70,000 range in coming days. Please share your ideas too. Let me know what y'all think.
The chart for MSTR (MicroStrategy) displays significant volatility and seasonal trends from 2015 to 2024. The stock tends to show strong positive performance in January, with notable gains in 2020, 2021, and 2023, aligning with the broader market optimism at the start of the year. However, February and March have been less consistent, with MSTR seeing significant declines in those months during 2018, 2022, and 2023. April and May also display mixed returns, with notable performance spikes in 2019 and 2020, although May often struggles. The summer months of June and July have historically been volatile, with substantial drawdowns in 2022 and 2023, especially during crypto winter, a period of declining cryptocurrency values. August continues this trend of volatility, while September remains a weak month, consistently underperforming. One of the key factors affecting MSTR is its direct exposure to Bitcoin, as the company holds substantial Bitcoin reserves. This connection makes MSTR highly sensitive to cryptocurrency market fluctuations, contributing to its increased volatility, particularly during crypto downturns. Notably, MSTR’s performance has been volatile during periods of crypto market stress, such as in 2022 and 2023. The inclusion of MSTR into QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) further magnifies this risk, as the ETF’s performance is now somewhat tied to MSTR's volatility. When MSTR’s Bitcoin holdings underperform or experience a significant decline, it can drag down the performance of QQQ , which could introduce more volatility into the tech-heavy ETF. This could lead to discrepancies in returns between QQQ and SPY , especially in periods when cryptocurrency struggles. The market's growing dependence on MSTR’s performance could make QQQ more sensitive to crypto market cycles, exacerbating its volatility compared to other more diversified ETFs like SPY .
The chart for YINN (Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares) reveals notable seasonal trends and volatility from 2015 to 2024. Historically, the YINN ETF shows strong performance in the first quarter, particularly in January and February, with gains in 2017, 2020, and 2021. However, the ETF faces significant declines during May and June, especially in 2015, 2018, and 2022, indicating that the market often struggles during mid-year. July shows mixed results, with notable volatility, and August typically brings significant negative returns, especially in 2015, 2019, and 2022. September is generally a weak month for YINN, aligning with a broader market tendency for underperformance, though there are some exceptions in 2017 and 2020. October and December tend to show strong positive returns in several years, notably in 2020, 2021, and 2022, suggesting a late-year rally. Geopolitical risks play a crucial role in the performance of YINN , as this ETF is directly exposed to China’s economic and political developments. Tensions between the U.S. and China, trade wars, and the potential for conflict could lead to significant market volatility. The Tail Ratio for YINN indicates that the risk of extreme downside moves is substantial, especially in years marked by heightened geopolitical instability, such as during trade disputes or military tensions. The strong swings, particularly in mid-year months, suggest that political events and government policies in China can have a pronounced effect on YINN's returns, amplifying volatility. Investors should be cautious and aware of the potential impact of geopolitical developments on Chinese markets, especially in periods of high tension.
The two longs I presented are what I believe Pengus' last bullish scenarios. If PA breaks through the Bullish equilibrium level, I will extend my long position past the hidden liquidity and find an entry to share there. However, if the price should fail to reach that price I will look at the demand zone below (0.786 fib) for my next entry. Obviously, I will take into consideration crypto market conditions but for the short term, I expect to see some upside. Thanks
Great Things, Great Minds Fellow traders and investors, We stand at an exciting juncture for XRP/USDT, and the charts are revealing a compelling story for those who know where to look. Using the Smart Money Fibonacci Extension strategy, I have identified a key price target of $5.64, aligning with the 2 standard deviation from the swing high and swing low on the 1-day timeframe. The Setup: The swing low at approximately $0.1143 and the swing high near $1.9553 have been crucial anchors for this analysis. These levels frame the structure of the recent rally and retracement, guiding us toward precision in identifying the next major move. The accumulation phase between 2022 and 2023 marked a textbook consolidation area, which has since broken out with strength. This breakout confirms the underlying bullish momentum. The Path Forward: Key Fibonacci Levels: Current price action is consolidating around the 0.382 and 0.618 retracement levels, classic zones of reaction. This accumulation within a rising trend suggests the bulls are reloading for the next leg up. The 2 standard deviation extension at $5.64 represents the next logical resistance zone, with a 125.58% upside from current levels. Bullish Continuation Pattern: The price is forming a consolidation flag (yellow box), often a precursor to a continuation of the trend. A breakout of this range would align with our target zones. Volume Dynamics: Volume surges during the initial breakout signal strong institutional interest, with reduced volume during consolidation—a bullish divergence that indicates the likelihood of continuation. Risk Management and Perspective: As always, risk management is key. While the macro trend points to higher levels, price could revisit lower Fibonacci levels for liquidity collection before the final push. My eyes are on $2.8758 and $3.7963 as interim checkpoints before reaching the ultimate target. Final Thoughts: The road to $5.64 is paved with technical precision and market psychology. As traders, we must trust the confluence of data, remain disciplined, and embrace the opportunities that lie ahead. Great things come to great minds, and the XRP charts are speaking to those who listen. Let’s execute our plans wisely and ride the wave of opportunity. Stay sharp, stay profitable. Lord MEDZ
The chart shows the historical monthly returns for a set of years from 2015 to 2024. It highlights the volatility and seasonal trends across each year, with various months showing different performance patterns. For instance, January and February often see negative returns, with January showing a consistent trend of losses in 2015, 2016, and 2022, but more positive returns in other years like 2017 and 2019. March has historically been a more favorable month, showing generally positive returns in most years, while April, May, and November exhibit stronger growth patterns in many of the years analyzed. Notably, the summer months (June, July, and August) tend to show mixed results, with July sometimes experiencing strong performance but August and June showing more volatility. September is typically a weak month for returns, and October's performance can be unpredictable, fluctuating between gains and losses. December tends to be positive for most years, with the exception of 2015 and 2016, offering a year-end rally in several years. Overall, the chart provides insights into how specific months influence returns and highlights the potential for different investment strategies based on these seasonal trends.
After a turmoil at late Decemeber and begining of January, BTCUSD can finally proceed moving with the uptrend, and here's why: According to 1-year HODL wave indicator, it has enteted a distribution phase, which normally corresponds with acceleration of the price action in the direction of dominating trend. BTC statistically grows better on weekends, as fiat market are closed and volatility is pretty low. Technically, price of BTCUSD is within the dynamic support, which gives it a potentially good trade location and might trigger the new wave of buying to start. Always DYOR and never forget to manage your risk!
Is showing cycle reversal to 102000. Take short term swings. A break trade can also be taken to target level. Happy New Year & Profitable Trading Summerset