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Hi tradars! Based on the DXY index, considering the deep overbought conditions on the 4-hour timeframe and the reversal of indicators on the 1-hour timeframe, we can assume that subwave ((iii) within the larger third wave has now been formed. It reached approximately 100% of subwave ((i)), and in the coming week, we expect the development of wave 4. After that, likely next week—closer to the Federal Reserve meeting—we could see the continuation of the bearish rally in DXY from around the 104.70 level. Currently, the chart displays the primary wave count. Let’s see if this scenario plays out. #DSI #WaveAnalysis #Forex #Trading #FedMeeting
Chart Analysis: 1. Timeframe and Price Context Timeframe: 4-hour chart (each candlestick represents 4 hours of trading). Price Levels: The current price is $92,812.72, with a slight decrease of 0.23% as of the latest data point. The price range on the chart spans from approximately $80,000 to $108,255 (the recent peak). Trend Overview: Late 2024: Bitcoin experienced a strong uptrend, peaking near $108,255. Early 2025: The price has corrected downward, forming a descending triangle pattern, with the current level at $92,812.72. 2. Key Patterns and Annotations Descending Triangle: The chart features a descending triangle pattern, a common consolidation pattern that can signal either a continuation of a downtrend or a reversal. Upper Resistance: A horizontal resistance line around $108,255 (the recent peak where the price failed to sustain higher levels). Lower Support: A descending trendline (sloping downward) that the price has been testing, currently near $92,000-$93,000. The price is nearing the apex of the triangle, suggesting an imminent breakout (upward or downward). Accumulation Zone: The chart labels an "Accumulation Zone" near the $80,000-$85,000 range, indicating a potential area where large players (e.g., whales) may have been buying during the correction. The current price ($92,812.72) is above this zone, suggesting a bounce or stabilization after reaching this support. Breakout Prediction: An upward arrow with a Bitcoin symbol points toward $120,000 or higher, indicating a potential bullish breakout targeting a new all-time high. 3. Support and Resistance Levels Support: The $92,000-$93,000 level is acting as immediate support, aligning with the lower boundary of the descending triangle. The $80,000-$85,000 accumulation zone is a stronger support level, likely a key area of buying interest during the correction. If this support fails, the next level could be around $75,000 (a psychological and historical support). Resistance: The $108,255 level is a major resistance, marking the recent high. The next significant resistance could be around $120,000 (as suggested by the arrow), a psychological level and a potential new all-time high. 4. Volume and Momentum (Not Visible but Inferred) Volume bars are not clearly visible, but typical behavior suggests: Volume likely peaked during the rally to $108,255 and decreased during the correction as selling pressure eased. A breakout would require a volume spike to confirm, especially if the price breaks above the descending trendline (around $100,000-$105,000). Momentum indicators (e.g., RSI or MACD) could indicate if Bitcoin is oversold or showing bullish divergence, supporting a reversal. 5. Potential Scenarios Bullish Breakout: If Bitcoin breaks above the descending trendline (around $100,000-$105,000) with strong volume, it could confirm the breakout. The target of $120,000 (a ~29% move from $92,812.72) is plausible, especially if whale accumulation in the $80,000-$85,000 zone drives momentum. This aligns with the upward arrow and suggests a resumption of the prior uptrend. Bearish Breakdown: If the price fails to hold the $92,000-$93,000 support and breaks below, it could signal a bearish continuation. The next support at $80,000-$85,000 would be tested, potentially leading to further downside toward $75,000. Consolidation: If the price remains within the triangle (between $92,000 and the descending trendline), it might continue to consolidate until a catalyst (e.g., market news, volume surge) triggers a move. 6. Market Context Whale Activity: The accumulation zone at $80,000-$85,000 supports your earlier narrative of whales accumulating during corrections to set up a breakout. This could indicate strategic buying by large players. Market Sentiment: As the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin’s price heavily influences altcoins like Ethereum and UNISWAP (from your previous charts). A bullish breakout in BTC could trigger similar moves in the broader market. Timing: The chart’s position near the triangle’s apex suggests a breakout could occur within days to a week on a 4-hour timeframe, depending on market conditions.
Colleagues, I'm going to make a new forecast that will be a little different from the last one. In the past, the price quickly reached the target, but I still expect a correction in wave “4” to the 1.06966 area to open profitable long positions. The target will still be the same 1.8978 area. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Today's buying and selling boundaries: 1.2911 Support and resistance levels: 1.2986 1.2958 1.2940 1.2883 1.2865 1.2837 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 1.2940, consider buying, the first target price is 1.2958 If the price breaks through 1.2911, consider selling, the first target price is 1.2883
On the daily chart, BTCUSD formed an insidebar and broke down, and the short-term bearish trend is dominant. At present, we can pay attention to the resistance near 85200. If the rebound encounters resistance, we can consider shorting. The downside target is around 73600.
The daily chart shows that the international gold price has fallen into a high-level shock consolidation trend after rebounding from a one-month low. The current price is repeatedly sawing in the 2900-2930 range, and the market's long and short forces tend to be balanced. Technical indicators show subtle differentiation: the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average form a dead cross and then turn upward, suggesting that there are signs of stabilization in the short term; the momentum of the MACD indicator candle chart continues to shrink, but the dead cross rhythm has slowed down; the KDJ indicator forms a low-level golden cross, and the RSI indicator rebounds from the oversold area, indicating that market sentiment is turning from pessimism to cautious optimism. However, the upper 2930 area gathers multiple pressures-this position is both the rebound high last Friday and the key resistance level of the previous failed breakthrough, suppressing the further upward space of gold prices. In terms of fundamentals, the US non-farm payrolls data in February was unexpectedly lower than expected, reinforcing the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates this year. Historical experience shows that interest rate cut cycles are often beneficial to interest-free assets such as gold, which provides medium- and long-term support for gold prices. But in the short term, the market still needs to wait for more economic data to verify the Fed's policy stance. During this period, gold prices are more susceptible to fluctuations in the US dollar index and changes in US bond yields. Focus on the key support level of 2900 above $2930 as the primary pressure target. If US economic data continues to weaken, gold prices are expected to break through the current range of fluctuations and retest last year's highs. Operational advice: Go long near 2905-2910, target 2915-2920.