Vwap acted as support good price by trend everyone are still fearful BECAUSE theres a hidden RSI bearish divergence i will only take this long IF it retraces to previous resistance trendline and it acts as support (market structure change and reversal) if it sweeps 290 I will look for the retrace at a higher price. like previous resistance. The reason i dont want to long here specifically is because i want higher probabilities in my favor.
BTC has been running nicely with risk-on sentiment. Nearing a significant Covid fib at 95,176.28 (Coinbase). Covid Stimulus nodes resonate most with monetary policy. It is PROBABLE that we Orbit it a few times. It is POSSIBLE that we get Rejected completely. It is PLAUSIBLE to blow through it then come back. If EXACT Rejection, look to sister fib below at $89,592.30 If ORBIT Capture, look to get flung in either direction. If BREAK Easily, pay more attention to the Genesis fibs . . The other major fib series for BTC, the "Genesis Sequence": https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/nsslVQs8-85-354-and-35-cents-BTC-Golden-Genesis-fib-and-KEY-for-BullRun/ These two sequences, the Genesis and Covid fibs, helped call "the TOP": https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/OviLbc8a-BTC-heads-up-into-105k-Genesis-Covid-fib-pair-major-resistance/ They also called the dip/bounce at 75k: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ZtM9hHmk-BTC-headed-to-75k-dead-cat-at-77-7k-then-73-75k-support-coming/ ==============================================================
Although I regularly have made bear forecasts on various things, I've never made a forecast of something going to zero (or as good as) before. It's something that's outside the scope of what my strategies are designed to do. They're based on trend development ideas and actually I generally tend to get fairy bullish in tight zones on things when they are around 75% down. When I make bear forecasts I generally make them with no regard given to what happens after they hit or to be bullish after they hit. MSTR finds itself in the unique position of being the only stock I've ever made this forecast on (Maybe the only one I ever will) because it is apparent to me based on reading the 8-K for MSTR that if BTC were to make a technical break and follow the downtrend cycle implied by that, the situation Saylor has created makes it almost impossible MSTR doesn't go bust. Or, more likely, they find some way to bail themselves out at the cost of the investors - like Saylor did in 2000. Another thing you don't see me doing often is going out my way to talk bad about people. I'm just not that into it. But Saylor ... is an exception. Saylor is the bubble man! Now, look - if you're into BTC, forget that for a second. I'm talking about Saylor. He has a history of doing something very specific - hopping onto a hype train, leveraging up to the max, encouraging others to take all in risk and seeing massive crashes in the stock if the bet wasn't right. On March 20, 2000, MicroStrategy's stock price plummeted by a staggering 62% in a single day, falling from $226.75 to $86.75. This was one of the most dramatic single-day collapses of the dot-com era. The stock continued to fall in the subsequent days and weeks. Saylor is a high roll gambler playing games to get his bankroll. And the way Saylor has structured the MSTR bet makes it very hard to see any way the company could survive (without some kinda investor slaying event) a sustained downturn in Bitcoin. I've seen videos of Saylor saying things like "If BTC went to $1 we'd just buy all the Bitcoin". Compared to what is in their 8-K, this is outright lies. There is almost zero chance MSTR would be able to sustain its position in Bitcoin under $15,000 if it stayed there some time. The difference between $15,000 and $1 is a lot. MSTR's bet does not give it an exact "Liquidation price", as such. It's not like if BTC hit $14,999 the company would fail. But this idea they'd just be "Buying all the Bitcoin" is outright lies. Because in this situation, MSTR would have no money. The way MSTR plans to raise money is selling MSTR stock at prices higher than it is now. If Bitcoin dropped and MSTR dropped, this would be far less attractive to do. The alternative is to raise funds from somewhere else (increase leverage)- but this could be hard to source in such an environment. When the bubble boy is out of his natural environment of dreamland markets, he's not as popular. Not buying all the BTC won't make MSTR go bust - what the problem would be as time went on is they have repayments they have to make on the debt they've accumulated. MSTR has three options how to pay this. Sell stock (Previously discussed), borrow money (take on more debt) or sell Bitcoin (At a major loss). That's their options. They should have another one. The other option should be "Make money with the tech company" - but if you go to the weekly chart on MSTR and zoom out, you'll see they've never done that. MSTR is one of the worst performing tech stocks of all time - and in their 8-K they say they're not making money from that business. MSTR only went up when Saylor latched onto the hype of BTC and began to deploy a leveraged bet. That for the second time in history began a sustained MSTR rally, the last one being when he did the same thing (Plus some accounting fraud) to run up the stock in the dot com bubble which then would slam and not recover until the new hype train in 2021. I mentioned $15,000 as a bad price for MSTR. Realistically, I found it'd be unlikely MSTR can do well with BTC under 30K for a sustained period of time. Even if it crashed and then just ranged there for a few years, this would be very troublesome for MSTR. They'd have a lot of payments to make in that time with no money. Their avenues to make money shut down. The tech company that never made money would probably be managing to under perform its terrible track record - perhaps redundant because of AI - the stock price would be in the gutter and all the people who'd be interested in lending to a guy like Saylor to do what he did would probably be quite cash strapped. Or wary. This isn't even an isolated risk. It's not even the case you can say "If BTC goes to $10,000 and stays there for 3 years before it goes to $150,000, MSTR will struggle". If it goes to $150,000, MSTR will just leverage up and up the price at which they'd enter into this situation of having known payments to make and no known way to generate the money to pay them other than selling BTC. Which since they would be progressively increasing their average price on that - would also always be at a big loss if sold into a downturn. All of this assumes that Saylor can easily sell as much BTC when he wants to and that not causing an issue. In the example of BTC trading in a range under30K for a while, our example assumes Saylor can sell BTC to cover costs and BTC remains in the range. Which might not be what happens. Given it's public knowledge when Saylor needs to make these repayments, and given it's public knowledge they have no means of making money - might not this lead to speculation? If the market knows Saylor is going to sell, might it not front run it? Might investors and speculators not panic? The idea of "Reflexivity" basically says that once things are in motion they will tend to feed upon themselves. Creating positive feedback loops. Good things breed good things. An example of this would be a stock rising makes it easier for the company to raise money and with more money they can make more money. Positive feedback loop. But this same idea works the same in reverse, and the negative feedback loop for MSTR is blatantly obviously to see - so much so that I think it's inevitable if the "Risk move" in BTC EVER happens - MSTR will likely go bust. But as I keep saying, there are ways MSTR can survive - it just means the investors are screwed. They can convert debt into stock. Maybe they'll find buyers for stock. Perhaps selling their Bitcoin can save the company at the cost of the share price. None of them would be good for investors. And these are the only things they could do. MSTR have taken a super aggressive bet. They've done it in a fancy way but they've basically used starting leverage and then the leverage of running profits to increasingly build a position into an uptrend. When you take the ideology out of this, all this is doing is super aggressively pyramiding into a trend with no trailing stops. I can tell you what has to happen to your position when there's a bigger than expected pullback when that happens! And, in this one rare case, I can tell you if that happened in BTC I see no logical way to believe MSTR does not go to zero, or as good as. Saylor is an incredibly irresponsible man. He has set up a situation where anything outside of the flawless bull trend over time he expects happens his company is almost certain to go bust. And then he presents himself as the modern day investing Jesus to young and naive people with no market experience - telling them to take as much risk as they can too. Saylor, hopefully in jest, suggests "Sell a Kidney if you must". I'd recommend he "Rent a brain if he can". Saylor is an all in gambler. That's the truth of the man.
From the daily gold chart, yesterday's gold price fell sharply and recorded a large real body negative candlestick pattern. The previous price peaked at a relatively obvious high, suggesting that the upper pressure effect is strong. The MACD indicator double line began to turn downward, increasing the risk of further short-term correction. However, the MA5 and MA10 moving averages have not turned downward yet, so you can pay attention to the support and defense of the moving averages. From the 4-hour gold chart, the gold price has maintained a volatile decline since it came under pressure at the 3500 line. The current price has fallen back to the 3260 line, with a short-term decline of US$240. Although there has been a rebound during the day, the upward trend has been destroyed. The MACD indicator double line has issued a dead cross reversal signal, suggesting that the correction trend may have started.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/mw6NsNZ1/ Yesterday's candlestick (Apr 24) was an inside bull doji. In our previous report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create another follow-through bull bar testing near the 20-day EMA, or if the market would trade slightly higher but stall around the 4050-4080 area or the 20-day EMA and reverse lower, forming a retest of the April 22 low instead. The market traded in a small range throughout the whole day. The bears see the current move as a pullback following the climactic selloff and oversold conditions. They want the 4050-80 area or the 20-day EMA to act as resistance. They want at least a retest of the recent leg low (Apr 22) followed by a strong breakout and a measured move based on the height of the 5-month trading range (AFTER the pullback). At the least, they want a small sideways to down leg to retest the April 22 low, even if it only forms a higher low. The bulls see the recent selloff as a sell vacuum and a bear leg within the trading range. They got a reversal from a wedge pattern (Mar 25, Apr 9, and Apr 22) and a lower low major trend reversal. They hope to get a 2-legged pullback testing near the 20-day EMA. The move could be underway. They must continue to create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of a reversal. If the market trades lower, they want it to form a higher low (vs Apr 22) and a double bottom (Apr 22) followed by a second leg sideways to up. The market is currently forming a sideways to up pullback. The bulls want a TBTL - Ten Bars, Two Legs pullback. That means they want any pullback to be minor followed by a second leg sideways to up after that. The selloff from April 2 to April 22 was strong enough for traders to expect at least a small sideways to down to retest the April 22 low (AFTER the current pullback), even if it forms a higher low. Will it happen within the next few days? If the market forms a retest of the April 22 low, traders will see the strength of the selling. If it is strong, traders may expect a breakout attempt below the April 22 low. If it is weak, we may see more profit-taking from the bears moving forward, followed by more sideways to up trading afterwards. For tomorrow (25/4/25), traders will see if the bulls can create another follow-through bull bar testing near the 20-day EMA. So far in the night market, the candlestick is a small bull doji trading slightly higher for the day. Or will the market trade slightly higher but stall around the 4050-4080 area or the 20-day EMA area and reverse lower, forming a retest of the April 22 low instead? The market remains in a large trading range (4500 - 3850). Traders may Buy Low and Sell High within the trading range. That means buying in the lower third of the trading range, and selling in the upper third until there is a strong breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling. Andrew
DOCU recovering well, as a tariff-proof business. Currently testing a proven Genesis fib at $81.72 Likely to dip a bit, or look for Break-and-Retest.
?Bitcoin just reminded the world who’s boss. After brushing up against $94K, it’s taking a breath—and for swing traders, that’s the moment to load the slingshot. We’re not chasing green candles. We’re positioning at smart levels that offer real upside when the next wave kicks off. With institutional flows increasing and volatility offering cleaner setups, the chart tells a story of momentum with room to reload. ? Strategic Entry Zones: $87,000 – Current support just below recent highs; ideal for an early swing $77,000 – Mid-range pullback and psychological threshold $62,000 – The ultimate opportunity zone if volatility spikes hard ? Profit Targets: $100,000 – A clean round number and breakout point $105,000 – Stretch target aligned with macro bullish continuation $115,000+ – Ambitious but not impossible—especially if halving hype and ETF flows stay strong This isn’t just about price—it’s about timing, conviction, and being ready while others hesitate. Remember, Bitcoin doesn't whisper when it moves... it roars. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency trading carries significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions.
CRYPTOCAP:USDC Dominance looks to be Double Topped on the RSI side and per historic movements, this looks promising for the market. I say, BRING ON THE ALTCOINS.
? 1000RATS Breakout Alert – 100%+ Potential Incoming?! ?? Hey Traders! If you're all about high-conviction plays and real alpha, smash that ? and tap Follow for more setups that actually deliver! ?? 1000RATS has officially broken out of a beautifully formed Cup and Handle pattern — a strong bullish continuation signal. This setup has been building over weeks and is now looking ready for the next explosive leg. ? Previous move from the same base delivered a 106% pump — and this breakout structure hints at another big potential. ? Technical Highlights: Breakout above neckline with volume Holding above EMA support Textbook Cup & Handle with ascending base ? Entry: Current Market Price (around $0.032) and add more in dip ? Targets: • Target 1: $0.045 • Target 2: $0.055 • Target 3: $0.061+ ? Stop-loss: $0.029 ⚙️ Risk: Use proper risk management — 3x–5x leverage recommended ? Watching closely for follow-through — if momentum sustains, this can be a massive mover. What are your thoughts?
# Option Insights – Trading the Greeks (Part 1 of 4) ## Delta Targeting Options are often utilized by traders as a leveraged tool, akin to generating lottery tickets. By selecting the appropriate expiration time and strike price, it's possible to achieve significant leverage on an underlying asset, potentially yielding high profits in percentage terms, albeit with a low probability of occurrence. However, trading options offers more than just directional bets on the underlying asset. Due to their dependence on various factors with distinct characteristics, option strategies enable flexible exposure management and innovative risk profiles. To fully exploit the potential of options, risk factors are quantified using the **Greeks** – Greek letters (not all of them) that assess the sensitivity of option prices to changes in different risk factors ("primary Greeks") or second-order effects ("secondary Greeks"). ### Primary Greeks: - **Delta** – sensitivity to changes in the underlying price - **Theta** – sensitivity to changes in time - **Vega** – sensitivity to changes in implied volatility - **Rho** – sensitivity to changes in interest rates ### Secondary Greeks: - **Gamma** – rate of change of Delta with respect to the underlying - **Vanna** – rate of change of Delta with respect to implied volatility - **Charm** – rate of change of Delta with respect to time - **Volga** – rate of change of Vega with respect to implied volatility For trading purposes, **Delta, Gamma, Theta, and Vega** are the most critical Greeks.\ They are depicted in the introductory graphs for Call Options, showing their behavior as a function of the underlying price across various levels of implied volatility. *(Graphs not shown here — you can add screenshots as image uploads if needed.)* --- ## Trading the Greeks: Delta The art of trading options is fundamentally the art of managing an option portfolio by **trading the Greeks**. For short-term options (from same-day expiration, or 0DTE, up to about three months), **Delta** is the dominant risk factor. The influence of other Greeks is limited to a narrow range around the strike price — this range becomes even narrower as expiration approaches. When managing an options position, **controlling Delta is the first and most critical step**. - Delta values range from 0% to 100% for long calls and short puts - From -100% to 0% for long puts and short calls - Delta represents the participation rate of an option in the underlying asset’s price movement Example:\ If an option has a Delta of 40% and the underlying asset moves by 10 points, the option’s price will typically move by approximately 4 points in the same direction. Delta can also be loosely interpreted as the **implied probability** that the option will expire in the money — though this is only an approximation. --- ## Delta-Neutral Strategy The most common Delta-targeting strategy is the **Delta-neutral strategy**. It aims to hedge the Delta of an options position by taking an **offsetting position in a Delta-1 instrument**. These instruments replicate the price movements of the underlying asset (e.g., the underlying itself, ETFs, futures, or CFDs). ### Example: - If an options position has a Delta of 40% and a notional exposure of 100 units - → Take a short position in 40 units of the underlying (or equivalent Delta-1 instrument) But:\ Delta is **not constant** — it evolves over time (**Charm**), with price changes (**Gamma**), and with changes in implied volatility (**Vanna**).\ This means the hedge must be **adjusted regularly** to maintain Delta neutrality. Adjustments are typically: - Made at discrete intervals (e.g., daily) - Or when Delta changes by a set amount (e.g., more than 5%) --- ## Delta Target Strategy (More General) The Delta-neutral strategy is a **specific case** of a broader **Delta target strategy**, where the Delta target is explicitly set to zero. ### Who uses Delta target strategies? - Option **market makers** to hedge inventory - Traders aiming to **isolate other risk factors** (e.g., volatility premium strategies like short strangles) These traders seek to: > **Capture the volatility premium** — the difference between implied volatility at entry and realized volatility after Delta target strategies with **non-zero targets** are used for managing portfolio-level risk when options are used alongside other instruments. --- ## Why Adjust Delta Target Strategies? The main reasons for adjusting: - **Gamma (convexity)**: Delta changes as the underlying moves - **Time decay**: - For OTM options: Delta decreases (calls), increases (puts) - For ITM options: Opposite behavior - **Changes in implied volatility or skew**: also affect Delta --- ## Coming Up Next: ? *Part 2: The Concept of Convexity and the Role of Gamma in Managing Delta Target Strategies* ---