In practice, many successful traders use these indicators as part of a broader strategy that includes backtesting, diversified signals, and strict risk controls. So, while these tools can be viable in helping to make informed decisions, they work best when integrated into a well-rounded trading system rather than relied upon in isolation.
NASDAQ:ULCC is breaking out of double bottom pattern after reporting earnings. Entry: Any current price point above the $8.33 breakout point. Price Target: $13.87 ~40% upside.
MU sideway continue 1.daily 200 moving average registance 2. trend line support .....
NYMEX: Micro Crude Oil Futures ( NYMEX:MCL1! ) #Microfutures On January 20th, President Donald Trump signed an executive order, “Declaring a National Energy Emergency”. This sets the tone of US energy policy for the next 4 years. By declaring national emergency and raising energy independence to the highest level of national security, President Trump introduced sweeping measures to fast-track energy infrastructure and regulatory approvals. In a 180-degree reversal, the new administration abandoned the Climate Change policies championed by the Biden presidency. Other executive orders saw the US quitting the Paris Climate Accord and cancelling pushes into renewable energy and electric vehicles. This marks a major turning point in the price trend of crude oil. Since Mid-January, WTI prices have already retreated 11%, while Brent was lowered by 10%. In my opinion, WTI futures could fall to the pre-Pandemic price range of $45-$64 a barrel, with a midpoint target at $55 in 2025. My logic follows: US oil production will rise, benefiting from the new energy policy As of 2023, the U.S. produced about 14.7% of the world's crude oil, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia. This makes the US the largest crude oil producer globally. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated the domestic oil production at 13.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024. It recently forecasted the US output to grow to 13.5 and 13.6 million b/d, in 2025 and 2026, respectively. Considering the complete makeover of US energy policy, I think the next EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) would show measurable upticks in its production forecast. Threats of Tariffs could curtail global oil demand Last week, the US slapped a 25% tariff for Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff for China on top of those imposed during the 2018-19 trade conflict. While the tariffs for Canada and Mexico are on hold pending trade negotiation, China retaliated and announced new tariffs on US goods at rates ranging from 10% to 15%. Rising global trade tensions would increase costs and raise the prices on store shelves. Declining sales would lead to production reduction. Eventually, a slowdown in economic activities will result in less demand for crude oil. The January STEO report forecasts global oil consumption growth to be less than the pre-pandemic trend, at an increase of 1.3 million b/d in 2025 and 1.1 million b/d in 2026. With the impact of higher tariffs, I expect the next STEO to show further deterioration in its oil consumption forecast. Lifting of oil embargo could release more supply to the global market The new administration campaigned to end global military conflicts. In my opinion, a US brokered peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine is on the horizon. Iran and the US could resume talks soon. Both scenarios could see the existing oil embargo being lifted. In 2024, Russia is the 3rd largest oil producer with 10.75 million barrels a day, while Iran ranks 7th with 4.08 million. Together, they contributed to over 18% of global oil output. Market trades on expectation. Oil prices would respond quickly with the emergence of any planned negotiation. OPEC+ to increase crude oil production The STEO forecasts the OPEC+ to relax production cuts. Following an annual decline of 1.3 million b/d in 2024, it expects growth of 0.2 million b/d in 2025 and a further increase of 0.6 million b/d in 2026 from OPEC+ producers as voluntary production cuts unwind. Additionally, STEO expects further production growth from countries outside of OPEC+, including the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. Commitment of Traders shows bearish sentiment The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on February 4th, total Open Interest (OI) for NYMEX WTI Futures is 1,765,342 contracts. “Managed Money” (i.e., hedge funds) own 204,272 in Long, 60,136 in Short and 393,098 in Spreading. • While they maintain a long-short ratio of 3.4:1, hedge funds have reduced long positions by 36,310 (-15%) while increasing short positions by 11,085 (+16%). • This indicates that “Smart Money” is becoming less bullish on oil. Crude oil prices typically rise on the back of geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and economic growth. We are likely to witness the retracing on all these fronts. https://www.tradingview.com/x/1NoYuPiE/ Another reason for the rising prices in most financial assets has been the abundance of liquidity, leading by the $2-trillion-a-year US deficit spending. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) made significant headways into cutting government expenditures. This could help remove some of the premiums on asset prices. Trade Setup with Micro WTI Futures If a trader shares a similar view, he could express his opinion by shorting the NYMEX Micro WTI Futures ( GETTEX:MCL ). MCL contracts have a notional value of 100 barrels of crude oil. With Friday settlement price of $71.0, each March contract (MCLH5) has a notional value of $7,100. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $586. NYMEX crude oil futures are among the most liquid commodity contracts in the world. On Friday, standard WTI futures ( NYSE:CL , 1000 barrels) has a trade volume of 784,820 contracts and an OI of 1,796,265. Micro WTI has a trade volume of 54,038 and OI of 19,178. The Micro contracts allow traders to tap into the deep liquidity of NYMEX WTI market, while requiring only 1/10th of the initial margin. Hypothetically, a trader shorts March MCL contract and WTI prices pull back to our upper price range of $64. A short futures position would gain $700 (= (71 - 64) x $100). Using the initial margin as a cost base, a theoretical return would be +119.5% (= 700 / 586). The risk of shorting crude oil futures is rising oil prices. Investors could lose part of or all their initial margin. A trader could set a stop loss while establishing his short position. In the above example, the trader could set stop loss at $75 when entering the short order at $71. If crude oil continues to rise, the maximum loss would be $400 ( = (75-71) *100). To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/microsuite.html The Leap trading competition, #TheFuturesLeap, sponsored by CME Group, is currently running at TradingView. I encourage you to join The Leap to sharpen your trading skills and put your trading strategies at test, competing with your peers in this paper trading challenge sponsored by CME Group. https://www.tradingview.com/ideas/thefuturesleap/ Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs https://www.tradingview.com/cme/
2/10/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:SHOP Just too expensive ST to play ST... prefer lower entry - as you guys see from prior comments (on this name and others), i tend to only act on extremes or where valuation is much more "obvious" - while i let go the stock too soon on the last print, it still wasn't "easy money" as the saying goes - so here's the logic on this q that keeps me sidelines 1/ we all know consumer, esp the emerging brands have had great 4Q's and this should be v +ve tailwind for SHOP 2/ at the same time, this CEO strikes me as a realistic guy, not the powder-nose-energy as PLTR's, which is to say many consumer brands have been offering "unclear yet what next year brings" sort of speech 3/ guidance usually always matters more than result (bc it's fwd looking and this is what stocks discount), but i think especially in environment where agent orange is still "fighting" tariff wars and there's uncertainty. this is all to say, the smaller brands are probably even less prepared than larger ones, and probably v china-mfg focused and so this disproportionately affects NYSE:SHOP 's customer 4/ it's not like the stock is cheap. it's one of these things where... if runs... i'd probably not want to chase it (if i didn't own it, which i don't) and if i did own it, i'd probably cut it. and if it dips, the question would be "how much" before i'd buy it - even a 10% or 15% dip probably wouldn't be enough to get me in the pool bc it would need to be a small position and at this stage in the "rally" (tape), i just don't like small positions clogging up my PnL. half pregnant. 5/ so if i "loved" the stock and had LT conviction (i'm maybe mostly there, but i like a lot of other stuff at the moment... e.g i've written extensively about NASDAQ:NXT , NYSE:UBER , CRYPTOCAP:BTC , $tsm...)... i'd be interested say maybe sub $100 to begin toe'ing in. i'd get much bigger on a final tariff sell off that sends the market into any reasonable correction (which we haven't had). again, at that pt i'd probably bite more on NYSE:UBER and names that are less tariff exposed that have been showing strength at better valuations. just for context, NYSE:UBER has similar EBITDA mgns as NYSE:SHOP , grows just as fast and produces nearly 4x as much FCF. so yeah. and i'd consider it an equally strong "platform moat". so there's that. i'm sidelines. rooting for you guys, but not drinking the market's kool aid. 40% cash and i like what i like. and the opportunity cost needs to be better than stacking more of what i like. this doesn't check that box, just yet. V
I do dowsing, as in with a pendulum swinging to answers to my questions about the market and stocks. So, this morning my pendulum suggested I let it pick a stock. I do this off of a stock screener on my ipad and there are literally thousands of tickers. The ticker of the day is for a REIT. I'm not usually familiar with the names of these companies & I do not look at charts prior to asking what the direction or guidance is for them. I don't need any biases influencing results! The energy of MITT is bullish & suggests there could be news coming. I'm starting to learn to look at the options open interest after the experience with my other idea, MIRM. There were almost NO options traded on it, yet huge open interest of 1900 calls purchased all in one day. MITT also has some "extra" options; all on the call side. My target is around the $10 mark. In the past these levels have hit & sometimes they simply consolidate & go higher, other times they completely reverse in a very ugly way. I get that this will make a big high, so it's possible there's then a short opportunity. I will check when we get up over $9. Options are so crazy cheap, at least for next weeks expiry. For technicals, it tested the 200 sma today and bounced right off it. There is also an 11% dividend (according to my husband). Good luck!
Hello, guys as you can see most important levels all ready breakout as per the options chain analysis market tomorrow will go down site but there one support also so just wait whatch the market after breakout support you can short if market not break the level fined out buy single all the best.
Nio has seen a long period of consolidation and the sentiment is at all time lows, it seems. I think that the stock is in the 'depressive' phase where holders are exhausted, and accumulation is taking place. I'm betting on a breakout to $10, and then $40 on a long-term rally.
Triple bottoms highlighted in yellow. Short entry at $183.10 Profit target $160 SL $189.20 I'll be looking at the GOOGL $182.50 Put 2/28 which is currently $2.39.
Technically: USDJPY is printing double bottom USDJPY is printing bullish divergence keep manage your risk