It’s a slow gold grinder. Pushing through today.
This bull flag could be getting ready to wave away. For awhile I was considering that higher highs for BTC.D would be off the table; considering the shooting star that shot through the 1.272 window. This normally hits the "night night" button for the trend up. This could be a clue that suggests that alt coins are not in their prime time for major pumps quite yet. IF there is a breakout above the flag it could re-test the 1:1.272 window or perhaps a bit further; the phi based 1:1.618. - Not Financial Advice -
A simple short idea only because of a break in the longer-term trendline. Nothing sophisticated.
⭐️Smart investment, Strong finance ⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Freshly released US data has fueled recession concerns, with the Atlanta Fed GDP Now Model slashing its Q1 2025 growth projection to -2.8%, a sharp drop from Monday’s 1.6% estimate. Meanwhile, February’s ISM and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI readings painted a mixed picture. The ISM index edged closer to the 50 threshold, signaling a slowdown, while the S&P Global measure showed solid expansion. In response, US Treasury yields tumbled as traders increasingly priced in Federal Reserve rate cuts. This flight to safety boosted demand for gold, propelling prices toward $2,900. Looking ahead, gold traders will turn their attention to key economic releases, including the ISM Services PMI, Initial Jobless Claims, and February’s Nonfarm Payrolls. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: Market sentiment is gradually improving and optimistic, expecting a new rally above 3000 after the implementation of tariffs that took effect yesterday in Canada, Mexico and China. Gold prices tend to retest the breakout zones of 2900, 2892 and 2880 to create more short-term liquidity. ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: ?BUY GOLD zone: $2891 - $2893 SL $2888 scalping TP1: $2896 TP2: $2900 TP3: $2905 ?BUY GOLD zone: $2880 - $2878 SL $2873 TP1: $2888 TP2: $2895 TP3: $2910 ?SELL GOLD zone: $2935 - $2937 SL $2942 TP1: $2928 TP2: $2920 TP3: $2910 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
Stop-Loss. This combination of words sounds like a magic spell for impatient investors. It's really challenging to watch your account get smaller and smaller. That's why people came up with this magic amulet. Go to the market, don't be afraid, just put it on. Let your profits run, but limit your losses - place a Stop-Loss order. Its design is simple: when the paper loss reaches the amount agreed upon with you in advance, your position will be closed. The paper loss will become real. And here I have a question: “ Does this invention stop the loss? ” It seems that on the contrary - you take it with you. Then it is not a Stop-Loss, but a Take-Loss. This will be more honest, but let's continue with the classic name. Another thing that always bothered me was that everyone has their own Stop-Loss. For example, if a company shows a loss, I can find out about it from the reports. Its meaning is the same for everyone and does not depend on those who look at it. With Stop-Loss, it's different. As many people as there are Stop-Losses. There is a lot of subjectivity in it. For adherents of fundamental analysis, all this looks very strange. I cannot agree that I spent time researching a company, became convinced of the strength of its business, and then simply quoted a price at which I would lock in my loss. I don't think Benjamin Graham would approve either. He knew better than anyone that the market loved to show off its madness when it came to stock prices. So Stop-Loss is part of this madness? Not quite so. There are many strategies that do not rely on fundamental analysis. They live by their own principles, where Stop-Loss plays a key role. Based on its size relative to the expected profit, these strategies can be divided into three types. Stop-Loss is approximately equal to the expected profit size This includes high-frequency strategies of traders who make numerous trades during the day. These can be manual or automated operations. Here we are talking about the advantages that a trader seeks to gain, thanks to modern technical means, complex calculations or simply intuition. In such strategies, it is critical to have favorable commission conditions so as not to give up all the profits to maintaining the infrastructure. The size of profit and loss per trade is approximately equal and insignificant in relation to the size of the account. The main expectation of a trader is to make more positive trades than negative ones. Stop-Loss is several times less than the expected profit The second type includes strategies based on technical analysis. The number of transactions here is significantly less than in the strategies of the first type. The idea is to open an interesting position that will show enough profit to cover several losses. This could be trading using chart patterns, wave analysis, candlestick analysis. You can also add buyers of classic options here. Stop-Loss is an order of magnitude greater than the expected profit The third type includes arbitrage strategies, selling volatility. The idea behind such strategies is to generate a constant, close to fixed, income due to statistically stable patterns or extreme price differences. But there is also a downside to the coin - a significant Stop-Loss size. If the system breaks down, the resulting loss can cover all the earned profit at once. It's like a deposit in a dodgy bank - the interest rate is great, but there's also a risk of bankruptcy. Reflecting on these three groups, I formulated the following postulate: “ In an efficient market, the most efficient strategies will show a zero financial result with a pre-determined profit to loss ratio ”. Let's take this postulate apart piece by piece. What does efficient market mean? It is a stock market where most participants instantly receive information about the assets in question and immediately decide to place, cancel or modify their order. In other words, in such a market, there is no lag between the appearance of information and the reaction to it. It should be said that thanks to the development of telecommunications and information technologies, modern stock markets have significantly improved their efficiency and continue to do so. What is an effective strategy ? This is a strategy that does not bring losses. Profit to loss ratio is the result of profitable trades divided by the result of losing trades in the chosen strategy, considering commissions. So, according to the postulate, one can know in advance what this ratio will be for the most effective strategy in an effective market. In this case, the financial result for any such strategy will be zero. The formula for calculating the profit to loss ratio according to the postulate: Profit : Loss ratio = %L / (100% - %L) Where %L is the percentage of losing trades in the strategy. Below is a graph of the different ratios of the most efficient strategy in an efficient market. https://www.tradingview.com/x/0kzTIA6w/ For example, if your strategy has 60% losing trades, then with a profit to loss ratio of 1.5:1, your financial result will be zero. In this example, to start making money, you need to either reduce the percentage of losing trades (1.5), while maintaining the percentage of losing trades (60%). With such improvements, your point will be below the orange line - this is the inefficient market space. In this zone, it is not about your strategy becoming more efficient, you have simply found inefficiencies in the market itself. https://www.tradingview.com/x/NkMeCb0K/ Any point above the efficient market line is an inefficient strategy . It is the opposite of an effective strategy, meaning it results in an overall loss. Moreover, an inefficient strategy in an efficient market makes the market itself inefficient , which creates profitable opportunities for efficient strategies in an inefficient market. It sounds complicated, but these words contain an important meaning - if someone loses, then someone will definitely find. https://www.tradingview.com/x/gdK8ziS7/ Thus, there is an efficient market line, a zone of efficient strategies in an inefficient market, and a zone of inefficient strategies. In reality, if we mark a point on this chart at a certain time interval, we will get rather a cloud of points, which can be located anywhere and, for example, cross the efficient market line and both zones at the same time. This is due to the constant changes that occur in the market. It is an entity that evolves together with all participants. What was effective suddenly becomes ineffective and vice versa. https://www.tradingview.com/x/fhMYlfpn/ For this reason, I formulated another postulate: “ Any market participant strives for the effectiveness of his strategy, and the market strives for its own effectiveness, and when this is achieved, the financial result of the strategy will become zero ”. In other words, the efficient market line has a strong gravity that, like a magnet, attracts everything that is above and below it. However, I doubt that absolute efficiency will be achieved in the near future. This requires that all market participants have equally fast access to information and respond to it effectively. Moreover, many traders and investors, including myself, have a strong interest in the market being inefficient. Just like we want gravity to be strong enough that we don't fly off into space from our couches, but gentle enough that we can visit the refrigerator. This limits or delays the transfer of information to each other. Returning to the topic of Stop-Loss, one should pay attention to another pattern that follows from the postulates of market efficiency. Below, on the graph (red line), you can see how much the loss to profit ratio changes depending on the percentage of losing trades in the strategy. https://www.tradingview.com/x/3E7zux1m/ For me, the values located on the red line are the mathematical expectation associated with the size of the loss in an effective strategy in an effective market. In other words, those who have a small percentage of losing trades in their strategy should be on guard. The potential loss in such strategies can be several times higher than the accumulated profit. In the case of strategies with a high percentage of losing trades, most of the risk has already been realized, so the potential loss relative to the profit is small. As for my attitude towards Stop-Loss, I do not use it in my stock market investing strategy. That is, I don’t know in advance at what price I will close the position. This is because I treat buying shares as participating in a business. I cannot accept that when crazy Mr. Market knocks on my door and offers a strange price, I will immediately sell him my shares. Rather, I would ask myself, “ How efficient is the market right now and should I buy more shares at this price? ” My decision to sell should be motivated not only by the price but also by the fundamental reasons for the decline. For me, the main criterion for closing a position is the company's profitability - a metric that is the same for everyone who looks at it. If a business stops being profitable, that's a red flag. In this case, the time the company has been in a loss-making state and the size of the losses are considered. Even a great company can have a bad quarter for one reason or another. In my opinion, the main work with risks should take place before the company gets into the portfolio, and not after the position is opened. Often it doesn't even involve fundamental business analysis. Here are four things I'm talking about: - Diversification. Distribution of investments among many companies. - Gradually gaining position. Buying stocks within a range of prices, rather than at one desired price. - Prioritization of sectors. For me, sectors of stable consumer demand always have a higher priority than others. - No leverage. I propose to examine the last point separately. The thing is that the broker who lends you money is absolutely right to be afraid that you won’t pay it back. For this reason, each time he calculates how much his loan is secured by your money and the current value of the shares (that is, the value that is currently on the market). Once this collateral is not enough, you will receive a so-called margin call . This is a requirement to fund an account to secure a loan. If you fail to do this, part of your position will be forcibly closed. Unfortunately, no one will listen to the excuse that this company is making a profit and the market is insane. The broker will simply give you a Stop-Loss. Therefore, leverage, by its definition, cannot be used in my investment strategy. In conclusion of this article, I would like to say that the market, as a social phenomenon, contains a great paradox. On the one hand, we have a natural desire for it to be ineffective, on the other hand, we are all working on its effectiveness. It turns out that the income we take from the market is payment for this work. At the same time, our loss can be represented as the salary that we personally pay to other market participants for their efficiency. I don't know about you, but this understanding seems beautiful to me.
We still need to tap upward slopping support before we head to knew highs imo. Keep snyping shorts until we do.
Influenced by US President Trump's imposition of new tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and the doubling of tariffs on Chinese goods, the situation has raised fears of a global trade war. OANDA:XAUUSD found support after fresh tariff concerns and rebounded to target $2,900 and above it the momentum is waning. Trump's tariff policy continues to boost inflation expectations while weakening economic growth expectations, and real yields continue to decline. The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports will have an important impact on the market. If data shows rising inflation, gold prices could fall as the market may reduce expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Recently, the market expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year, up from 44 basis points last week. Trump's tariff action, which could affect nearly $2.2 trillion in annual US two-way trade with China, takes effect at 12:00 Hanoi time on Tuesday. China responded immediately by imposing additional tariffs of 10%-15% on certain US imports effective March 10 and imposing a series of new export restrictions on certain designated US entities, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Ottawa will immediately apply a 25% tariff on $20.7 billion worth of US goods. JPMorgan said it has a structurally long-term bullish view on gold and expects gold prices to reach $3,000 by the fourth quarter of 2025. Trump's tariffs are considered inflationary and have prompted many investors to move money into the safe-haven gold, which has risen more than 10% this year. However, higher inflation in the United States could force the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for longer, which could reduce the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Markets await the ADP jobs report on Wednesday and the US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday for more information on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/ACSZAkjZ-GOLD-approaching-2-900USD-conditions-for-correction-end/ Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has achieved the $2,900 target gain readers noticed in previous editions since it reached support at $2,835. Temporarily, the recovery momentum is weakening but maintaining price activity above the original price level of $2,900 is considered a positive signal for continued upside, and the next target is $2,942 in the short term, more than the all-time high of $2,956. The interim relative strength index is also showing signs of reacting to the 61 resistance level, a continued break towards the overbought area would be a positive signal for bullish expectations in terms of momentum. During the day, gold's price recovery prospects and notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 2,900 – 2,880 – 2,868USD Resistance: 2,942 – 2,956USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2941 - 2939⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2945 →Take Profit 1 2933 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2927 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2884 - 2886⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2880 →Take Profit 1 2892 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2898
GBP/USD Price just pushed up into a key resistance zone around 1.2775, tapping into that area but showing some hesitation. This level aligns with a previous high and a major trendline rejection, which could signal a potential pullback or even a reversal if sellers step in heavy. The 200-day EMA is sitting slightly above at 1.2784, so we gotta watch how price reacts—either it breaks and holds above for continuation, or we get a clean rejection that sets up a short opportunity. Bearish Setup: If price fails to break and hold above 1.2780, I’ll be looking to sell, targeting 1.2716 first, then potentially down to 1.2505 if momentum kicks in. Confirmation would come with a strong bearish candle or a break back below the previous structure. Bullish Setup: If price breaks and holds above 1.2785 with momentum, then we could be headed for 1.3016 and beyond. I’d be looking for a clean breakout with a retest before jumping in long. ? My Bias? Right now, I’m leaning bearish unless buyers step in aggressively and break that resistance clean. If I see a strong rejection, I’m jumping in for the short ride down.
The pair had some minor corrections, but overall we have as yet to see at least near 2.0200 area. the overbought state and stochastic suggest we should see lower in the coming sessions. Strategy SELL @ 2.0440-2.0490 and take profit near 2.0227.
Seeds in Chaos, Petals in Profit A trader's guide to reading the market through nature's lens. By: Masterolive Intro: This trader's guide is not another cookie-cutter trading system. Instead, it focuses on building a long-term mindset and a way to read the market's chaos through nature's lens. This guide is grounded in real success but is not for the daily trader; it works for long-term swings using hourly price moves. Over seven years of trading, I developed a unique way to view the market, which led to a practical trading mindset. The technique comes from simplifying the chart after experiencing endless combinations of indicators to no avail. It wasn't until I had to explain my concept to someone else that I found a way to use a garden analogy that fits the mindset well to see the market as a natural system: planting in chaos, thriving through storms. Later, I read two books: "The Alchemy of Finance" by George Soros and "The Misbehavior of Markets" by Benoit Mandelbrot and Richard L. Hudson. Surprisingly, these two books validated my approach and inspired me to share it. Previously, I would tell no one because I thought it was silly. The overall goal is to plant a garden, watch it grow, and understand how the weather affects the plants. This guide walks you through determining what flowers you want to plant and how to read the weather after you have made your choice. It uses a garden and planting flowers as an analogy to choosing the right stocks and interpreting an EMA indicator to determine the market's direction. This guide also works well for Bitcoin. This guide will help you understand how to read and interpret the chart. It will also give you accurate future context so you react less to the market moves and see the bigger picture: Plant while they panic. This guide is not financial advice. Part One - Planting. Some traders focus on various companies based on technicals or fundamentals, some short-term and some long-term. Other traders will focus on a few stocks or diversify across many. For this guide, we pick and diversify a sector with roles that thrive together. The industry can be broad or small, but we will use 10 assets, including nine stocks and Bitcoin, and explain how they correlate and grow into a weather-worthy garden. In this garden, we will focus on Tech and Finance and explain how to plant and organize the garden. First, we must look back at the broadest picture in finance. We will choose a stock exchange and a crypto exchange in this garden. (1 and 2 out of 10 flowers) Why an exchange? Simply put, traders will always look for stocks and crypto to buy. They will look for the best companies and the best opportunities. Therefore, stock exchanges will benefit from the revenue they generate. If a stock goes parabolic, the exchange still profits from that price move. Choosing the exchange skips the hassle of finding companies in a haystack. The same is true for the crypto exchange. Our garden has two flowers: one stock exchange and one crypto exchange, representing those two sectors. Next, what else can correlate with our garden from a zoomed-out view? Let's choose a Bank and a payment processor. (3 and 4 out of 10 flowers) Traders will need the bank to on and offramp their cash profits to and from the stock and crypto exchange. Meanwhile, they will need to process those electronic payments. The bank and payment processors benefit from trading surges; if everyone piles in for a parabolic price move of a particular stock, the bank and payment processors benefit from the action, and the exchanges offering the stock get revenue from the surge. Once again, this choice skips the need to hunt for specific stocks. It takes advantage of all stocks since traders need cash, banks, electronic payments, and exchanges to buy those company stocks or bitcoin. Our garden now has Four flowers, a bank and payment processor, and two exchanges for this sector. The correlation? Exchanges, banks, and processors all thrive when traders move money. The fifth is a pivot flower before we discuss the tech company sector. This pivot flower is a gambling company (5 out of 10). How does this correlate? Some traders and other users gamble with their cash and profits; even in a recession or a depression, people will still gamble. Plus, users might take their gambling winnings and invest them in a stock or buy bitcoin. They need a bank, an exchange, and a payment method. In this case, the flowers are self-reinforcing: gambling winnings or losses, stock booms or busts; it doesn't matter in the big picture because, once again, exchanges, banks, and processors all thrive when people move money. Our garden now has five flowers with a broad but strong correlation. Now, on to the tech sector with the last five flowers. You will hone in on specific tech roles at this point, but remember that your choices will be self-reinforcing. If your choice booms, the exchange benefits, and you benefit again from the exchange stock. You will electronically transfer your profits to your bank, which you benefit from by owning the bank stock and payment processor. But if you're smart, you will skip the gambling and let the crowd roll the dice while you plant the profits. We will focus on two more flowers (6 and 7 out of 10) for tech, so we need to find companies exposed to the popular and relevant tech we want. For tech company 1, you could expose yourself to AI, EVs, and ROBOTS. For tech company 2, Semiconductors (or graphics cards). In this section of our garden, graphic cards and AI rely on one another, while EVs and robots use AI to operate. Eventually, people will buy or sell the robot and EV, and some may use the profits to buy stock (or Bitcoin), requiring a bank and payment processor. Meanwhile, people use LLMs, log into their bank, or exchange daily on a computer that requires a graphics card. Our garden now has seven flowers out of 10, 3 more to go! We want to diversify (but stay correlated with our garden), so next, we will look at a real estate company or ETF—but not just any company or ETF, one that develops in tech hub areas. How does this correlate? Robots, AI, EVs, and graphics cards all need workers to operate the companies; young talent will want to move to places where they can work in AI or Robotics or factory EV workers, so the real estate in those areas will be in high demand, so now we own the real estate for our Ai, EV, Robots, and graphic card workers. As tech grows, real estate booms, driving more money through exchanges, banks, and processors. We now have eight flowers in our weather-worthy garden. For the 9th flower, we turn to a wildflower: none other than Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not just a crypto coin but a capital asset, a store of value for your currency when it debases. People, especially tech workers, will buy, trade, and sell Bitcoin. As people learn and turn to the asset, global capital will flow through Bitcoin as people around the world save their cash value, whether it be from gambling winnings, selling a car, selling real estate, selling a stock, or simply putting part of their income from their tech job into it regularly. All of this requires Exchanges, Banks, and payment processors to move. Bitcoin correlates with that, as exchanges profit off bitcoin, which you own stock in the exchange company. You still need a bank to land on and a payment processor to move the money electronically. We now have nine flowers in our garden, and it's almost complete. How can we diversify even more? We can use industrial metal for our last flower, but how does an industrial metal correlate with our tech and finance garden? Copper is the metal that conducts electricity, and electricity is needed to move money, send Bitcoin, power a growing network of EV superchargers, and power the factories that produce EVs, graphics cards, robots, and more. Copper's the most vigorous root, tying every flower, from tech to finance, into a weather-worthy bed. Meanwhile, the crowds go for gold and sleep on copper. That completes our garden with 10 flowers. It's a diversified flowerbed, but the flowers correlate in the big picture: Tech drives money movement, which benefits exchanges, banks, and processors; copper powers tech, which drives Bitcoin adoption. Your goal is to find and build your garden. Think up different bigger pictures with other sectors and roles. Correlating these assets keeps the garden strong through chaos and self-reinforces one another. To review, we have the following: Stock exchange Crypto Exchange Bank Payment processor Gambling Ai / EV / Robots Semiconductors (Graphics cards) Real estate Bitcoin Copper Now that we have planted our garden, let's examine the weather and its meaning. We will learn to read the weather and see when storms are coming or clearing. In part 2, you will set a simple EMA indicator, learn how to interpret the weather, and tend to the flowers in our garden.