? ? ? Market-Moving News ?: ??? ISM Manufacturing PMI Release: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, which could influence market sentiment. ???️ Construction Spending Data: The U.S. Census Bureau will report on February's construction spending, providing insights into the health of the construction industry and potential impacts on related sectors. ??? Job Openings Report: The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February will be released, offering a view into labor demand and potential implications for wage growth and consumer spending. ? Key Data Releases ? ? Tuesday, April 1: ? ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 49.5% Previous: 50.3% Assesses the health of the manufacturing sector; a reading below 50% suggests contraction. ?️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 0.3% Previous: -0.2% Measures the total value of construction work done; indicates trends in the construction industry. ? Job Openings (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 7.7 million Previous: 7.7 million Provides insight into labor market demand by reporting the number of job vacancies. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. ? #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
ADA’s been stuck in this sideways grind for a while, and the volume’s basically ghosting us. So, where’s it at, and where’s the next move? Let’s dig in. ADA’s sitting at $0.6615 right now, trading below the yearly open at $0.8451 and the range’s sweet spot, the POC, at $0.7325. That tells me it’s leaning a bit bearish, but not exactly screaming panic, more like it’s just chilling in this 57 day range. It tapped the monthly open at $0.6328 recently, bounced a little, but without volume showing up, it’s like nobody’s ready to commit yet. Key Levels Resistance Zones (Short Opportunities) 1.) Range POC: $0.7325, this is the most traded price within the 57 day range, acting as a magnet for price. A rejection here could signal a short setup. 2.) Yearly Open ($0.8451): a psychological and structural level that could cap upside if momentum remains weak. Trading below this level keeps the yearly bias bearish. A break above with volume would flip the narrative. Support Zones (Long Opportunities) 1.) Monthly Open: $0.6328, already saw a little bounce here with that swing failure move, perfect setup for a long trade if you were quick on the draw. 2.) Yearly Open 2024 + 21 Monthly EMA: $0.594 - $0.5928, strong confluence with the prior yearly open and a key moving average. This zone aligns closely with the swing low at $0.5801, forming a robust support cluster between $0.5801 - $0.594. 3.) 21 SMA: $0.53, a deeper support level if the above zone fails. This would indicate a more significant breakdown, but it’s a potential accumulation area for longer-term traders. Market Structure Analysis Bearish Bias Above Swing Low: Trading below the yearly open and POC suggests sellers are in control unless price reclaims $0.7325 with conviction. Range-Bound Behaviour: The 57 day range indicates consolidation. Volume is the missing catalyst, watch for a spike to confirm direction. Swing Low as Key Pivot: The $0.5801 level is critical. A hold here maintains the range; a break below shifts focus to $0.53 and signals capitulation. High-Probability Trade Setups Long Setups 1.) Long Setup #1 at Swing Low ($0.5801 - $0.594 Zone) Entry Trigger: Look for a swing failure pattern (SFP) where price dips below $0.5801, reclaims it, and shows rejection of lower prices (e.g., a bullish candle with a wick below). Stop Loss (SL): Place just below the swing low Take Profit (TP): $0.70 (near-term resistance) Stretch Target: $0.8451 (yearly open), though this requires stronger momentum. Confirmation: Higher-than-average volume on the reclaim + bullish price action (e.g., engulfing candle). 2.) Long Setup #2: $0.4735 Sniper Entry Entry Trigger: If ADA takes a bigger tumble, $0.4735 is your sniper’s nest, think of it as catching the knife with style. Could be a wick that snaps back. This is a deeper, high-reward play. Price has to fall by a lot from here, but if it hits, the R:R is amazing, and it’s below most traders radar. Patience is the name of the game. Short Setup At POC ($0.7325) or Yearly Open ($0.8451) Strategic Outlook Current Stance: If not in a trade, the $0.5801 level is the highest-probability long setup due to confluence and R:R. The SFP at $0.6328 today was a missed opportunity, but a deeper pullback sets up an even better entry. Breakout Watch: A decisive close above $0.7325 (POC) with volume shifts focus to $0.8451. Conversely, a break below $0.5801 targets $0.53. Patience is Key: Low volume suggests waiting for a clear catalyst (e.g., news, BTC move) to drive ADA out of this range. Wrapping It Up The $0.5801 swing low long with SL below and TP at $0.7 - $0.8451 is the standout trade right now—low risk, high reward, and backed by confluence. Monitor volume closely, as it’s the linchpin for any breakout or reversal. If ADA holds this support and volume picks up, the retest of $0.8451 becomes plausible. If you found this helpful, please leave a like and a comment. Happy trading!
I am placing a limit order for a long position at 42,027 in the anticipation of a pullback to support. My stop is 150 ticks ( based on the 115 tick ATR ) and my target is 2.5 risk to reward or 375 ticks. Will I know if this support level will hold? No, and I don't need to. To me, this is a great location, and I am willing to put risk on to find out. I am bullish the next three months and so, will mainly look for buy setups when they present. This trade, I am buying the level and not waiting for confirmation. If you take the same trade, manage your risk as any trade can fail.
Hello Traders, in this update, we are analyzing a new potential harmonic pattern forming on Bitcoin—the Shark Harmonic. This pattern is developing based on the recent rejection from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, which signals a possible move toward the 0.618 Fibonacci support. If this level holds, it will confirm the C-leg of the pattern, setting up a potential strong expansion toward the D-leg. This move could drive Bitcoin back toward its all-time high (ATH) before a possible reversal. Once Bitcoin reaches the D-leg near the ATH, traders should watch for a potential bearish rejection. If this rejection occurs, it would activate the bearish phase of the Shark Harmonic, offering a high-probability short trade. These macro-level moves take time to develop, but this pattern provides clear trading opportunities for both long and short positions. Key Technical Points to Consider • Bitcoin’s recent rejection from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement suggests a move toward 0.618 Fibonacci support, which will determine the activation of the Shark Harmonic C-leg. • If price holds support at C, a strong expansion toward the D-leg could take Bitcoin back to the ATH before facing potential resistance. • A bearish rejection at the ATH could trigger the short trade phase of the Shark Harmonic, offering a macro-level short opportunity. Potential Scenarios & Conclusion If Bitcoin follows the Shark Harmonic structure, the move from C to D presents a potential long trade opportunity, with price targeting the ATH. However, once price reaches this level, a strong bearish reaction could mark the start of a macro short setup, making this a key level to watch. Traders should be patient and monitor how price reacts at these key Fibonacci levels. This pattern is unfolding on a high time frame, meaning confirmation is essential before executing trades. If price action respects the harmonic structure, it could provide a clear roadmap for both bullish and bearish trades in the coming months.
Why is $3,090 a Great Buying Area? Support within the Channel – The price has been respecting the lower boundary of the channel, and 3,090 aligns with this trend structure. Volume Profile Confirmation – Visible volume accumulation around this level suggests it has strong support. Buyers previously stepped in here, making it a logical point for re-entry. Trend Continuation Setup – The overall bullish structure remains intact, making pullbacks like 3,090 a low-risk buying area for continuation toward the target of 3,157. Why Not Short Here? The trend is clearly bullish, and there are no reversal signals. Even if a pullback occurs, it should be seen as an opportunity to buy rather than an indication to short. The price is approaching the upper boundary of the channel, but until clear bearish signals appear, betting against the trend is risky. Conclusion A pullback to 3,090 should be considered a buying opportunity for a move toward 3,157. As long as the price remains within the channel, the primary focus should be on buying dips rather than looking for short entries.
Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1M chart) https://www.tradingview.com/x/OPlJCqQP/ A new candle has been created as a new month begins. The StochRSI indicator has fallen below the midpoint, and OBV has been hunting since around October 1, 2024. As I mentioned before, the StochRSI indicator must fall to the oversold zone and then rise to create a peak in order to draw a trend line between the lows. Therefore, the point to watch next month is whether the StochRSI indicator can enter the oversold zone. The key is whether the price can be maintained above 73499.86. - (1D chart) https://www.tradingview.com/x/1gVYiI0w/ If the current StochRSI indicator creates a peak in the oversold zone, that is, if it closes up, the uptrend line (2) will be completed. If that happens, we should see whether it can maintain the price by rising above the Fibonacci ratio 2.24 (83646.12) around April 5th. If not, it is highly likely that it will eventually fall again. In the explanation of the 1M chart, I said that the StochRSI indicator should enter the oversold zone. You may think that the price should fall because of this, but you should not necessarily think that the price will fall because the StochRSI indicator may show a downward trend even if the price rises. In such an ambiguous situation, rather than predicting whether it will rise or fall, you should check whether the current price position is supported or falling and think about whether to respond. As I said earlier, you should respond depending on whether there is support near the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart where the arrow is pointing. This time, you should check in which direction it deviates from the Fibonacci ratio range of 2 (80999.68) ~ 2.24 (83646.12) and think about a response plan. This movement is expected to appear after the next volatility period, April 4-6. - Thank you for reading to the end. I wish you successful trading. -------------------------------------------------- - This is an explanation of the big picture. To check the entire range of BTC, I used TradingView's INDEX chart. I rewrote the previous chart to update it by touching the Fibonacci ratio range of 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10). (Previous BTCUSD 12M chart) https://www.tradingview.com/x/WBuhqVrT/ Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015. In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend. Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025. - (Current BTCUSD 12M chart) https://www.tradingview.com/x/z7KccUWy/ Based on the currently written Fibonacci ratio, it is displayed up to 3.618 (178910.15). It is expected that it will not fall again below the Fibonacci ratio of 0.618 (44234.54). (BTCUSDT 12M chart) https://www.tradingview.com/x/qnPyNIaV/ Based on the BTCUSDT chart, I think it is around 42283.58. - I will explain it again with the BTCUSD chart. The Fibonacci ratio ranges marked in the green boxes, 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10) and 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83), are expected to be important support and resistance ranges. In other words, it seems likely that they will act as volume profile ranges. Therefore, in order to break through these ranges upward, I think the point of interest is whether they can be supported and rise near the Fibonacci ratios of 1.618 (89126.41) and 2.618 (134018.28). Therefore, the maximum rising range in 2025 is expected to be the 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83) range. In order to do that, we need to see if it is supported and rises near 2.618 (134018.28). https://www.tradingview.com/x/QXrexgiP/ If it falls after the bull market in 2025, we don't know how far it will fall, but based on the previous decline, we expect it to fall by about -60% to -70%. Therefore, if it starts to fall near the Fibonacci ratio of 3.14 (157451.83), it seems likely that it will fall to around Fibonacci 0.618 (44234.54). I will explain more details when the bear market starts. ------------------------------------------------------
I'll be waiting to see if this can make it back into the rising channel before making a buy.
Hello. Have you guys looked at USD currencies pair on the monthly chart ? EUR & AUD looks as if the bears will come back into play on a bigger picture. And for what I see currently. 1.07606 is the level of support I want to target. Maybe even 1.07326. We have seen some price rejection around the 1.0820 - 1.8290 range. If price can stick a strong bullish candle over that range I would reverse to taguer the highs. But the bulls haven't controlled the market since the big push a few weeks back. The longer they take to push up the market and continue the trend the better opportunity for seller to take control. And again I want to reiterate look on the bigger timeframes.
Technical Analysis: 1. Daily Chart: • US30 is in a pullback phase after a strong uptrend. • The MACD is negative, but price is nearing key support, signaling a potential reversal. • The RSI is at 43.74, close to oversold territory, indicating limited downside risk. 2. 15-Minute Chart: • The MACD is strongly positive, confirming short-term bullish momentum. • A strong bounce from recent lows suggests buyers are stepping in. • The RSI is 55.40, indicating neutral momentum with room to push higher. 3. 3-Minute Chart: • The MACD is slightly negative, but showing signs of bottoming out. • RSI is 49.62, neutral but ready to turn up. • Price is consolidating after a strong move up, suggesting a continuation higher. Fundamental Analysis: • The Dow Jones (US30) has recently rebounded from key support levels, aligning with a strong US economy and moderate Fed policies supporting equity markets. • Global economic conditions remain stable, and institutional buyers are likely stepping in at this level. ⸻ Trade Execution: • Entry: 41,900 (Confirmation of bullish momentum after consolidation) • Stop-Loss (SL): 41,750 (Below recent low, protecting against further downside) • Take-Profit (TP): 42,250 (Targeting recent resistance, maintaining a 2:1 RRR) FUSIONMARKETS:US30
The Kiwi is clinging to uptrend support within a broader rising wedge, with selling pressure reemerging at .5680 despite Monday’s late recovery. A clean break below the uptrend could see bears target .5650, the low from Monday. A move through that level would put .5600 in focus as the next downside target. Momentum signals reinforce the bearish case—RSI (14) and MACD continue to trend lower into negative territory, favouring selling rallies and downside breaks. If the price were to fail beneath the uptrend again and reverse back above .5680, the bearish bias would be invalidated for now. Good luck! DS